{"frameworkVersion":"projective-layers-v1","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","lastReviewed":"2026-07-31","title":"Projective Layers","description":"A versioned framework that keeps observed records, published outlooks, Solar Analytica scenario ranges, review triggers and later outcomes separate.","methodology":{"promise":"Preserve what was known, show what was assumed, watch what changes, and later compare the projection with what happened.","rangeLabel":"Conditional scenario range, not a probability or confidence interval.","referenceLabel":"The reference case is an analytical planning case, not a most-likely forecast.","revisionRule":"A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically.","accountabilityRule":"Observed outcomes are appended when a like-for-like authoritative release exists. The original projection remains frozen.","layers":[{"key":"observed","label":"Observed record","question":"What had happened by the evidence cut-off?","rule":"Measured or officially estimated values retain their source vintage and revision status."},{"key":"outlooks","label":"Published outlooks","question":"What did named sources say could happen?","rule":"Forecasts, projections, scenarios and targets keep the classification used by their publisher."},{"key":"envelope","label":"Scenario envelope","question":"Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?","rule":"Lower, reference and upper paths remain explicit; the range is not assigned a probability."},{"key":"triggers","label":"Review triggers","question":"What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?","rule":"Triggers are declared before publication and cause review rather than automatic replacement."},{"key":"accountability","label":"Outcome and marking","question":"What happened when the horizon became observable?","rule":"Like-for-like actuals are appended and the result is marked inside, above or below the original envelope."}],"sources":[{"title":"AER Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines, June 2026","url":"https://www.aer.gov.au/system/files/2026-06/AER%20-%20Forecasting%20best%20practice%20guidelines%20-%205%20June%202026.pdf","role":"Inputs, assumptions, methodology disclosure and post-period performance review."},{"title":"Australian Government National Climate Scenario Guidance","url":"https://www.dcceew.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/national-climate-scenarios-guidance.pdf","role":"Scenario transparency, uncertainty, trigger points and adaptive review."},{"title":"AEMO Forecasting Accuracy Reporting","url":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/forecasting-accuracy-reporting","role":"Public comparison of forecast components with later observations."}]},"profiles":[{"id":"mono-si-technology-mix-2030","title":"Monocrystalline silicon technology transition","shortTitle":"Cell technology to 2030","scope":"Global mono-Si module technology","domain":"technology-assets","evidenceCutoff":"2026-06-25","publishedOn":"2026-07-31","baselinePeriod":"2025","horizonPeriod":"2030","accountabilityDue":"2031-06-30","accountabilityStatus":"not-yet-assessable","evidenceStrength":"Moderate","sourceReport":{"title":"Monocrystalline Silicon to 2030: A Scenario Model for Procurement and Investment Planning","href":"/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning","publishedOn":"2026-06-11","lastReviewed":"2026-06-25","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning"},"layerAvailability":{"observed":"available","outlooks":"available-in-source-report","envelope":"available","triggers":"available","accountability":"not-yet-assessable"},"constructionMethod":"The lower, reference and upper endpoints are named published roadmap positions selected in the source report. They are not averaged midpoints and do not carry assigned probabilities.","planningRead":"The useful information is the spread and its revision risk. Any multi-year decision should carry a review clause rather than depend on one precise 2030 number.","boundaries":["Global scope; jurisdiction-specific tariffs, trade barriers and freight sit outside the layer.","Commercial shipment share is separate from laboratory efficiency records and product bankability.","Only the 2025 baseline and 2030 endpoints are asserted; the page does not invent an annual path between them.","The envelope is a conditional scenario range, not a statistical confidence interval."],"triggers":[{"key":"roadmap-edition","label":"A new roadmap vintage","cadence":"On publication","test":"Reopen the layer when a named source materially revises a 2030 endpoint or its underlying classification."},{"key":"shipment-mix","label":"A new measured shipment mix","cadence":"Annual","test":"Compare the new observed technology shares with the frozen 2025 baseline and the direction implied by the envelope."},{"key":"manufacturing-capacity","label":"Material committed capacity","cadence":"Event-driven","test":"Review when committed or operating capacity changes the factory-scale evidence behind a technology path."},{"key":"commercial-availability","label":"Commercial shipment evidence","cadence":"Event-driven","test":"Keep laboratory records separate; review only when commercial product ships at material scale."}],"metrics":[{"key":"topcon-share","title":"TOPCon shipment share","shortTitle":"TOPCon","unit":"%","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":65,"lower":50,"reference":60,"upper":70,"axis":{"min":40,"max":80,"ticks":[40,50,60,70,80]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-topcon","read":"Every published case keeps TOPCon above half of shipments in 2030; the uncertainty is how much share it gives back to later architectures.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-topcon"},{"key":"back-contact-share","title":"Back-contact shipment share","shortTitle":"Back-contact","unit":"%","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":7,"lower":15,"reference":23,"upper":35,"axis":{"min":0,"max":40,"ticks":[0,10,20,30,40]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-back-contact","read":"Back-contact carries the widest source spread in the model, making its range more useful than its reference point alone.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-back-contact"},{"key":"hjt-share","title":"HJT / SHJ shipment share","shortTitle":"HJT / SHJ","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":4.5,"lower":3,"reference":8,"upper":15,"axis":{"min":0,"max":20,"ticks":[0,5,10,15,20]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-hjt","read":"The wide envelope reflects roadmap revision risk rather than uncertainty about the underlying cell physics.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-hjt"},{"key":"tandem-share","title":"Perovskite-silicon tandem shipment share","shortTitle":"Tandem","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":0.3,"lower":0.5,"reference":2,"upper":5,"axis":{"min":0,"max":6,"ticks":[0,1.5,3,4.5,6]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-tandem","read":"Commercial share stays below five per cent across the source positions even while laboratory records move much faster.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-tandem"},{"key":"module-efficiency","title":"Commercial module efficiency, weighted average","shortTitle":"Module efficiency","unit":"%","decimals":1,"prefix":"","suffix":"%","baseline":23.5,"lower":24,"reference":25,"upper":26,"axis":{"min":22,"max":27,"ticks":[22,23,24,25,26,27]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-module-efficiency","read":"The range is a planning boundary for land and roof-area assumptions, not a promise about a particular supplier.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-module-efficiency"},{"key":"flagship-power","title":"Utility flagship module power","shortTitle":"Flagship power","unit":"Wp","decimals":0,"prefix":"","suffix":" Wp","baseline":770,"lower":750,"reference":800,"upper":900,"axis":{"min":700,"max":950,"ticks":[700,750,800,850,900,950]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-flagship-power","read":"High-case module power should remain contingency, not the default capacity-per-hectare assumption.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-flagship-power"},{"key":"module-asp","title":"Global module ASP, ex-tariff","shortTitle":"Module ASP","unit":"US$/Wp","decimals":2,"prefix":"US$","suffix":"/Wp","baseline":0.09,"lower":0.06,"reference":0.08,"upper":0.1,"axis":{"min":0.04,"max":0.12,"ticks":[0.04,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12]},"ledgerClaimId":"sa-2030-module-asp","read":"The global range excludes jurisdiction-specific trade barriers, freight and local delivered-cost premiums.","forecastLedgerUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/forecast-ledger#sa-2030-module-asp"}]}],"homepage":"https://solaranalytica.com/projective-layers","license":"Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica. Third-party outlooks remain the work of their named publishers."}