{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"aemo-rooftop-pv-forecast-accuracy-2026","title":"The Rooftop Solar Forecast That Swung Both Ways","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/aemo-rooftop-pv-forecast-accuracy-2026","datePublished":"2026-09-28","lastReviewed":"2026-09-24"},"figure":{"id":"nem-rooftop-pv-forecast-error","title":"Rooftop PV Central forecast error, NEM, by ESOO vintage","unit":"% (forecast minus estimated actual, over estimated actual)","caption":"Forecast minus estimated actual installed rooftop PV capacity at 30 June, over the estimated actual, NEM total, Central scenario. Negative is an under-forecast. AEMO Forecast Accuracy Report, Table 5, 2023, 2024 and 2025 editions. The estimated actuals are provisional: installers have up to a year to register a system.","provenance":{"dataSource":"AEMO Forecast Accuracy Report, Table 5, 2023 to 2025 editions","dataType":"Publisher-reported forecast error against estimated actuals","scope":"NEM total, Central scenario, installed rooftop PV at 30 June"},"series":[{"label":"2022 ESOO","value":-2.2},{"label":"2023 ESOO","value":-6.5},{"label":"2024 ESOO","value":5.5}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/aemo-rooftop-pv-forecast-accuracy-2026/figures/nem-rooftop-pv-forecast-error/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}