{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026","title":"Ocean Warming Now Dominates El Nino in Coral Bleaching Attribution","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026","datePublished":"2026-07-28","lastReviewed":"2026-07-27"},"figure":{"id":"recent-event-counterfactual-risk","title":"Reported 2018 to 2025 regions below moderate risk in the counterfactual","unit":"per cent of 71 reported regions","valueLabel":"Below moderate risk","provenance":{"dataSource":"Pershing et al. (2026), Oceanography 39(2):12-16","dataType":"Observation-led attribution with modelled counterfactuals","scope":"71 regions with reported bleaching in Spady et al. (2026), assessed in the counterfactual","statistic":"Regional counts and shares reported in the paper","interval":"No confidence interval reproduced for these count summaries"},"caption":"Pershing et al. (2026). Seventy of 71 reported regions fall below 4 degree-C weeks after removing the attributed anthropogenic warming contribution.","series":[{"label":"Below moderate risk","value":98.59154929577466},{"label":"Moderate risk remains","value":1.408450704225345}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026/figures/recent-event-counterfactual-risk/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}