{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026","title":"Ocean Warming Now Dominates El Nino in Coral Bleaching Attribution","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026","datePublished":"2026-07-28","lastReviewed":"2026-07-27"},"figure":{"id":"warming-dominance-over-strong-el-nino","title":"Regions where the warming contribution exceeds a strong El Nino","unit":"per cent of 74 dual-signal regions","valueLabel":"Share of regions","provenance":{"dataSource":"Pershing et al. (2026), Oceanography 39(2):12-16","dataType":"Observation-led attribution with modelled counterfactuals","scope":"MEOW coral regions represented by 1-degree ocean cells","statistic":"Regional counts and shares reported in the paper","interval":"No confidence interval reproduced for these count summaries"},"caption":"Pershing et al. (2026). The 1989, 1998 and 2025 rows are historical attribution results; 2028 is projected under SSP3-7.0.","series":[{"label":"1989 crossover","value":50},{"label":"1998 event","value":82.43243243243244},{"label":"2025 study endpoint","value":95.94594594594594},{"label":"2028 SSP3-7.0 projection","value":100}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/coral-bleaching-ocean-warming-attribution-2026/figures/warming-dominance-over-strong-el-nino/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}