{
  "slug": "data-centre-demand-denominators",
  "title": "Two Denominators, One Data Centre Forecast",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/data-centre-demand-denominators",
  "summary": "AEMO has published one data centre forecast and two shares for it: almost 10 per cent of underlying demand by 2050, and 12 per cent of grid-supplied consumption by FY50. The gap between the bases is mostly rooftop solar, and the share worth quoting depends on what the percentage is for.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/data-centre-demand-denominators/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-07-24",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-24",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan for the National Electricity Market",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2026-integrated-system-plan-isp"
    },
    {
      "title": "Oxford Economics Australia for AEMO: Data Centre Energy Demand, Final Report (July 2025)",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/stakeholder_consultation/consultations/nem-consultations/2024/2025-iasr-scenarios/final-docs/oxford-economics-australia-data-centre-energy-consumption-report.pdf"
    },
    {
      "title": "Clean Energy Council: Powering the digital economy (23 July 2026)",
      "url": "https://www.cleanenergycouncil.org.au/news-resources/powering-the-digital-economy"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: NEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities (the operational sent-out consumption basis cited by the Oxford Economics figure notes)",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/nem-forecasting-and-planning/forecasting-and-reliability/nem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-esoo"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: Operational demand data (definition of operational demand)",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/national-electricity-market-nem/data-nem/operational-demand-data"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "data-centre-consumption-step-change",
      "title": "Australian data centre electricity consumption, Step Change",
      "unit": "TWh",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "Oxford Economics Australia for AEMO",
        "dataType": "Published base-year estimate and forecast",
        "scope": "Australia and the NEM",
        "statistic": "Electricity consumption",
        "interval": "FY25-FY50"
      },
      "caption": "Australian data centre electricity consumption, Step Change (Oxford Economics Australia for AEMO). The square is the published FY25 base-year estimate; hollow points and the dashed line are forecasts. Growth averages 25.1 per cent a year. Of the 34.5 TWh forecast for FY50, 33.8 TWh sits on the NEM.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "FY25",
          "value": 3.9,
          "basis": "derived"
        },
        {
          "label": "FY30",
          "value": 12,
          "basis": "forecast"
        },
        {
          "label": "FY50",
          "value": 34.5,
          "basis": "forecast"
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "data-centre-fy50-share-denominators",
      "title": "The same FY50 forecast on two demand bases",
      "unit": "%",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "AEMO 2026 ISP and Oxford Economics Australia for AEMO",
        "dataType": "Published forecast comparison",
        "scope": "NEM",
        "statistic": "Share of demand",
        "interval": "FY50 / 2050"
      },
      "caption": "One forecast, two published shares (Oxford Economics for AEMO; AEMO 2026 ISP). Both describe the same Step Change trajectory; the smaller share is measured against the larger base. The blue bar is the ISP's 2050 headline, drawn at 10 for \"almost 10 per cent\".",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Of grid-supplied",
          "value": 12
        },
        {
          "label": "Of underlying",
          "value": 10
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "implied-2050-demand-denominators",
      "title": "Implied 2050 demand denominators",
      "unit": "TWh",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "Solar Analytica derivation from AEMO and Oxford Economics published shares",
        "dataType": "Derived estimate",
        "scope": "NEM",
        "statistic": "Implied annual demand",
        "interval": "2050"
      },
      "caption": "Implied 2050 denominators, derived here by dividing a numerator near 34 TWh by each published share. Both totals are estimates and are not figures AEMO publishes. The blue bar is the residual between the two bases.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Underlying",
          "value": 340
        },
        {
          "label": "Grid-supplied",
          "value": 283
        },
        {
          "label": "The difference",
          "value": 57
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "data-centre-grid-share-trajectory",
      "title": "Data centre share of NEM grid-supplied consumption",
      "unit": "%",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "Oxford Economics Australia for AEMO",
        "dataType": "Published base-year estimate and forecast",
        "scope": "NEM",
        "statistic": "Share of grid-supplied consumption",
        "interval": "FY25-FY50"
      },
      "caption": "Share of NEM grid-supplied consumption, one basis throughout (Oxford Economics for AEMO). The square is the published FY25 base estimate; hollow points and the dashed line are forecasts. The FY30 waypoint is highlighted because it is checkable this decade.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "FY25",
          "value": 2,
          "basis": "derived"
        },
        {
          "label": "FY30",
          "value": 6,
          "basis": "forecast"
        },
        {
          "label": "FY50",
          "value": 12,
          "basis": "forecast"
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}