{
  "slug": "monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning",
  "title": "Monocrystalline Silicon to 2030: A Scenario Model for Procurement and Investment Planning",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning",
  "summary": "Industry roadmaps disagree by wide margins on 2030's cell-technology mix, and revise themselves within a single year. A low/base/high scenario model, aggregated from ITRPV, CPIA, Exawatt and NREL, built for procurement and capex planning rather than a single confident forecast.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-06-11",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-06-11",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "ITRPV 15th Edition (2024), VDMA",
      "url": "https://www.qualenergia.it/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/ITRPV-15th-Edition-2024-2.pdf"
    },
    {
      "title": "ITRPV 16th Edition press release (2025), VDMA",
      "url": "https://vdma.eu/documents/34570/16191053/2025-04-15+PR+VDMA+PV+ITRPV+2025+EN.pdf/83432c9b-8071-2d1d-a429-4b4f73dca9de"
    },
    {
      "title": "ITRPV 17th Edition coverage, PV Tech (2026)",
      "url": "https://www.pv-tech.org/itrpv-2026-solar-industry-maintains-historic-learning-curve-despite-market-turbulence/"
    },
    {
      "title": "ITRPV 17th Edition coverage, pv magazine (2026)",
      "url": "https://www.pv-magazine.com/2026/06/25/itrpv-global-solar-module-shipments-reached-approximately-706-gw-in-2025/"
    },
    {
      "title": "China PV Industry Development Roadmap 2024-2025, CPIA",
      "url": "https://news.sohu.com/a/869196271_121823071"
    },
    {
      "title": "TaiyangNews: Projected Market Shares of Different Solar Cell Technologies",
      "url": "https://taiyangnews.info/technology/projected-market-shares-of-different-solar-cell-technologies"
    },
    {
      "title": "TaiyangNews: Next-Gen Solar Cell Technologies & Projections",
      "url": "https://taiyangnews.info/technology/next-gen-solar-cell-technologies-projections"
    },
    {
      "title": "NREL Spring 2025 Solar Industry Update",
      "url": "https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy25osti/95135.pdf"
    },
    {
      "title": "Fraunhofer ISE Photovoltaics Report (2025)",
      "url": "https://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/content/dam/ise/de/documents/publications/studies/Photovoltaics-Report.pdf"
    },
    {
      "title": "LONGi: BC technology capacity growth, company press release",
      "url": "https://eu.longi.com/press/longi-improves-operational-resilience-in-2025-through-bc-technology-growth-and-integrated-solar-and-storage-expansion"
    },
    {
      "title": "Aiko Solar equity research note, 7chinapv (2025)",
      "url": "https://7chinapv.com/companies/12220.html"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "shipment-share-2025-vs-2030-base",
      "title": "Mono-Si shipment share by cell technology, 2025 vs 2030 base case",
      "unit": "%",
      "valueLabel": "2025 share",
      "valueBLabel": "2030 base case",
      "caption": "Shipment share by cell technology: 2025 measured against the 2030 base case. Each base-case endpoint is a sourced roadmap position, not a split difference; the low and high endpoints per metric are in the table below.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "TOPCon",
          "value": 65,
          "valueB": 60
        },
        {
          "label": "Back-contact",
          "value": 7,
          "valueB": 23
        },
        {
          "label": "HJT / SHJ",
          "value": 4.5,
          "valueB": 8
        },
        {
          "label": "Tandem",
          "value": 0.3,
          "valueB": 2
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "back-contact-scenario-spread",
      "title": "Back-contact shipment share: 2025 and the 2030 scenario spread",
      "unit": "%",
      "caption": "Back-contact (BC / XBC) shipment share, the widest scenario spread in the model: published 2030 estimates span 15% to 35%, more than double from source to source. The base case sits at 23%; endpoints per the scenario table above.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "2025, measured",
          "value": 7
        },
        {
          "label": "2030 low",
          "value": 15
        },
        {
          "label": "2030 base",
          "value": 23
        },
        {
          "label": "2030 high",
          "value": 35
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}