{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"nem-bess-capture-index","title":"The TBx Capture Index: Every NEM Battery Against Perfect Foresight","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/nem-bess-capture-index","datePublished":"2026-07-08","lastReviewed":"2026-07-22"},"figure":{"id":"index-vs-fleet-by-region","title":"The index vs reality by region, thousand AUD per MW, Q1 2026","unit":"thousand AUD per MW, Q1 2026, full-quarter fleet","valueLabel":"TB4 index (perfect foresight)","valueBLabel":"Fleet actual (energy-only)","caption":"What the contracts settle on vs what the fleet earned: the TB4 index against actual energy-only revenue per MW, by region, Q1 2026. South Australia's spread is 3.7x Queensland's, and in every region the index ran 2.7x to 3.8x the real fleet's wholesale energy revenue.","series":[{"label":"SA","value":133.7,"valueB":34},{"label":"NSW","value":47.8,"valueB":17.7},{"label":"VIC","value":36.6,"valueB":9.6},{"label":"QLD","value":36,"valueB":9.6}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/nem-bess-capture-index/figures/index-vs-fleet-by-region/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}