{
  "slug": "nem-rooftop-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
  "title": "Rooftop Solar's Wholesale Value Fell Further Than the Solar Farms'",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/nem-rooftop-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
  "summary": "The value factor of NEM rooftop solar, from AEMO's half-hourly rooftop estimate and five-minute prices: between 0.78 and 0.98 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.02 and 0.31 in 2025, below the solar farms in every region, and below zero in Victoria across 2023. Reconciled to AEMO's published figures; wholesale system value, not what households are paid.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/nem-rooftop-solar-value-factor-2019-2025/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-10-06",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-09-27",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "AEMO: MMSDM monthly data archive (ROOFTOP_PV_ACTUAL, DISPATCHPRICE), January 2019 to December 2025",
      "url": "https://nemweb.com.au/Data_Archive/Wholesale_Electricity/MMSDM/"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2025, section 1 (distributed PV averages)",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/major-publications/qed/2025/qed-q4-2025.pdf"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "nem-rooftop-solar-value-factor-2019-2025",
      "title": "Rooftop solar value factor by NEM region, 2019 and 2025",
      "unit": "ratio (rooftop output-weighted price over time-weighted average price)",
      "valueLabel": "2019",
      "valueBLabel": "2025",
      "caption": "Rooftop output-weighted regional price divided by the time-weighted average price, each calendar year, using AEMO's measurement-based estimate of rooftop output. Two annual readings per region, not a trend line. Computed by Solar Analytica from AEMO MMSDM half-hourly rooftop estimates and five-minute prices.",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "AEMO MMSDM ROOFTOP_PV_ACTUAL (measurement estimate) and DISPATCHPRICE",
        "dataType": "Computed index from AEMO's estimate of rooftop output and observed prices",
        "scope": "NEM rooftop solar, NSW, Qld, SA, Vic, calendar years"
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "NSW",
          "value": 0.914,
          "valueB": 0.311
        },
        {
          "label": "Qld",
          "value": 0.782,
          "valueB": 0.138
        },
        {
          "label": "SA",
          "value": 0.865,
          "valueB": 0.022
        },
        {
          "label": "Vic",
          "value": 0.977,
          "valueB": 0.136
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "nem-solar-value-factor-rooftop-vs-utility-2025",
      "title": "Utility-scale against rooftop solar value factor, 2025",
      "unit": "ratio",
      "valueLabel": "Utility-scale solar",
      "valueBLabel": "Rooftop solar",
      "caption": "2025 value factor, same prices and same time-weighted average, weighted by utility-scale solar output (AEMO unit data) or by AEMO's estimate of rooftop output. Computed by Solar Analytica from AEMO MMSDM data.",
      "provenance": {
        "dataSource": "AEMO MMSDM DISPATCH_UNIT_SCADA, ROOFTOP_PV_ACTUAL and DISPATCHPRICE",
        "dataType": "Computed index",
        "scope": "NEM, NSW, Qld, SA, Vic, 2025"
      },
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "NSW",
          "value": 0.43,
          "valueB": 0.311
        },
        {
          "label": "Qld",
          "value": 0.281,
          "valueB": 0.138
        },
        {
          "label": "SA",
          "value": 0.531,
          "valueB": 0.022
        },
        {
          "label": "Vic",
          "value": 0.338,
          "valueB": 0.136
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}