{"schemaVersion":"report-figure-v1","report":{"slug":"solar-heat-penalty","title":"The Heat Penalty: What Warming Does, and Does Not Do, to Solar Yield","url":"https://solaranalytica.com/solar-heat-penalty","datePublished":"2026-04-16","lastReviewed":"2026-04-16"},"figure":{"id":"cell-temperature-by-market","title":"Modelled operating cell temperature, all 40 markets, against the 25°C rating","unit":"°C","metricLabels":{"heatLossPerc":"Annual heat loss against nameplate, PERC-class modules, %","heatLossHjt":"Annual heat loss against nameplate, HJT modules, %"},"caption":"Each dot is one of the 40 markets in the Solar Analytica yield baseline: modelled annual operating cell temperature for a panel whose wattage is rated at 25°C, with the rating and the 40-market average marked. Solar Analytica yield model on NASA MERRA-2 (1994-2024) temperatures and CERES irradiance.","provenance":{"dataSource":"Solar Analytica yield model on NASA MERRA-2 (1994-2024) temperatures and CERES irradiance, via the location yield baseline","dataType":"Modelled","scope":"40 markets"},"series":[{"label":"Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA","value":53.2,"heatLossPerc":9.881,"heatLossHjt":6.775},{"label":"Alice Springs, Australia","value":61.2,"heatLossPerc":12.663,"heatLossHjt":8.683},{"label":"Antofagasta (Atacama), Chile","value":51.1,"heatLossPerc":9.135,"heatLossHjt":6.264},{"label":"Athens (Attica), Greece","value":53.3,"heatLossPerc":9.891,"heatLossHjt":6.782},{"label":"Bamako (Sahel), Mali","value":65.8,"heatLossPerc":14.28,"heatLossHjt":9.792},{"label":"Berlin, Germany","value":45.4,"heatLossPerc":7.147,"heatLossHjt":4.901},{"label":"Bogota, Colombia","value":55.1,"heatLossPerc":10.538,"heatLossHjt":7.226},{"label":"Cairo, Egypt","value":61,"heatLossPerc":12.617,"heatLossHjt":8.652},{"label":"Cape Town, South Africa","value":49.9,"heatLossPerc":8.722,"heatLossHjt":5.981},{"label":"Casablanca, Morocco","value":55.1,"heatLossPerc":10.535,"heatLossHjt":7.224},{"label":"Dubai, UAE","value":63.4,"heatLossPerc":13.436,"heatLossHjt":9.214},{"label":"Helsinki, Finland","value":39.2,"heatLossPerc":4.977,"heatLossHjt":3.413},{"label":"Jakarta, Indonesia","value":60.8,"heatLossPerc":12.523,"heatLossHjt":8.587},{"label":"Jodhpur (Rajasthan), India","value":65.8,"heatLossPerc":14.287,"heatLossHjt":9.797},{"label":"Johannesburg, South Africa","value":56.2,"heatLossPerc":10.913,"heatLossHjt":7.483},{"label":"Kabul, Afghanistan","value":51.1,"heatLossPerc":9.142,"heatLossHjt":6.269},{"label":"Lagos, Nigeria","value":59.9,"heatLossPerc":12.211,"heatLossHjt":8.374},{"label":"Lhasa (Tibet), China","value":43.1,"heatLossPerc":6.324,"heatLossHjt":4.337},{"label":"London, United Kingdom","value":45.8,"heatLossPerc":7.273,"heatLossHjt":4.987},{"label":"Los Angeles, USA","value":54.9,"heatLossPerc":10.472,"heatLossHjt":7.181},{"label":"Madrid, Spain","value":51.5,"heatLossPerc":9.286,"heatLossHjt":6.367},{"label":"Masdar City / Abu Dhabi, UAE","value":62.8,"heatLossPerc":13.24,"heatLossHjt":9.079},{"label":"Nairobi, Kenya","value":58.8,"heatLossPerc":11.819,"heatLossHjt":8.105},{"label":"New York, USA","value":46.1,"heatLossPerc":7.378,"heatLossHjt":5.059},{"label":"Oslo, Norway","value":39.2,"heatLossPerc":4.96,"heatLossHjt":3.401},{"label":"Paris, France","value":47,"heatLossPerc":7.703,"heatLossHjt":5.282},{"label":"Perth, Australia","value":53.3,"heatLossPerc":9.915,"heatLossHjt":6.799},{"label":"Phoenix, Arizona, USA","value":61.4,"heatLossPerc":12.736,"heatLossHjt":8.734},{"label":"Reykjavik, Iceland","value":37.7,"heatLossPerc":4.431,"heatLossHjt":3.038},{"label":"Riyadh, Saudi Arabia","value":65.3,"heatLossPerc":14.094,"heatLossHjt":9.665},{"label":"Santiago, Chile","value":54.3,"heatLossPerc":10.241,"heatLossHjt":7.022},{"label":"Sao Paulo, Brazil","value":56.8,"heatLossPerc":11.113,"heatLossHjt":7.62},{"label":"Seoul, South Korea","value":47,"heatLossPerc":7.686,"heatLossHjt":5.27},{"label":"Seville, Spain","value":56.6,"heatLossPerc":11.06,"heatLossHjt":7.584},{"label":"Shanghai, China","value":52.5,"heatLossPerc":9.621,"heatLossHjt":6.598},{"label":"Singapore","value":60.6,"heatLossPerc":12.477,"heatLossHjt":8.556},{"label":"Stockholm, Sweden","value":41.1,"heatLossPerc":5.635,"heatLossHjt":3.864},{"label":"Sydney, Australia","value":52.5,"heatLossPerc":9.628,"heatLossHjt":6.602},{"label":"Tokyo, Japan","value":50.2,"heatLossPerc":8.834,"heatLossHjt":6.058},{"label":"Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia","value":36.3,"heatLossPerc":3.944,"heatLossHjt":2.705}]},"csv":"https://solaranalytica.com/reports/solar-heat-penalty/figures/cell-temperature-by-market/data.csv","publicationState":"fixed-edition","boundary":"The figure remains bound to the report edition. A newer upstream release creates a review obligation and never rewrites these rows automatically."}