{
  "slug": "wem-esoo-2026-outlook",
  "title": "The 2026 WEM ESOO: A Forecast Layer for the SWIS",
  "url": "https://solaranalytica.com/wem-esoo-2026-outlook",
  "summary": "AEMO's ten-year SWIS planning case, kept explicitly separate from observed operations: a 347 MW forecast surplus in 2028-29, a shortfall from 2029-30, and coordinated household batteries entering the capacity model.",
  "license": "Free to use with attribution to Solar Analytica (solaranalytica.com). Underlying figures are named to their public sources below.",
  "csv": "https://solaranalytica.com/reports/wem-esoo-2026-outlook/data.csv",
  "datePublished": "2026-07-20",
  "lastReviewed": "2026-07-20",
  "sources": [
    {
      "title": "AEMO: 2026 WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/-/media/files/electricity/wem/planning_and_forecasting/esoo/2026/2026-wem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities.pdf?hash=8F07B31AF06B19451ACCF1F085BB76A8&rev=80281c368251452c84bfa16ab4eb9fcd&sc_lang=en"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: WEM ESOO publication and supporting materials",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/wem-forecasting-and-planning/wem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-wem-esoo"
    },
    {
      "title": "AEMO: 2026 WEM ESOO publication announcement",
      "url": "https://www.aemo.com.au/newsroom/media-release/near-term-electricity-supply-outlook-improves-in-was-main-power-system"
    }
  ],
  "figures": [
    {
      "id": "expected-existing-committed-capacity-balance",
      "title": "Forecast existing and committed peak-capacity balance, Expected scenario",
      "unit": "MW surplus / shortfall",
      "caption": "Forecast existing and committed peak capacity minus the Peak Reserve Capacity Target, Expected scenario. Positive values are forecast surplus; negative values are forecast shortfall. Anticipated projects are excluded from this series. AEMO Table 1, 2026 WEM ESOO.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "2026-27",
          "value": 267
        },
        {
          "label": "2027-28",
          "value": 166
        },
        {
          "label": "2028-29",
          "value": 347
        },
        {
          "label": "2029-30",
          "value": -166
        },
        {
          "label": "2030-31",
          "value": -207
        },
        {
          "label": "2031-32",
          "value": -1081
        },
        {
          "label": "2032-33",
          "value": -1309
        },
        {
          "label": "2033-34",
          "value": -1443
        },
        {
          "label": "2034-35",
          "value": -1826
        },
        {
          "label": "2035-36",
          "value": -2161
        }
      ]
    },
    {
      "id": "distributed-capacity-outlook",
      "title": "Forecast distributed PV and battery capacity, 2026-27 to 2035-36",
      "unit": "MW",
      "valueLabel": "2026-27",
      "valueBLabel": "2035-36",
      "caption": "Approximate installed distributed capacity in AEMO's Expected scenario. These are forecast stocks, not Solar Analytica operating observations. AEMO Executive summary, 2026 WEM ESOO.",
      "series": [
        {
          "label": "Rooftop PV",
          "value": 3100,
          "valueB": 6000
        },
        {
          "label": "Distributed batteries",
          "value": 550,
          "valueB": 2300
        }
      ]
    }
  ]
}