{"generated_at":"2026-07-27T04:07:55.295Z","schema":"https://solaranalytica.com/schemas/transition-delivery-v1","methodology":"Forecast, permission, delivery, operation and revision remain distinct evidence states. Records move only on named source evidence.","version":"transition-delivery-2026-07","updatedAt":"2026-07-27T00:00:00+00:00","live":true,"records":[{"recordKey":"swis-daily-operating-record","marketCode":"AU-WEM","marketName":"Western Australia WEM","geography":"SWIS","stage":"operation","status":"Observed","title":"The SWIS operating layer is retained separately from its outlook","summary":"Five-minute WEM observations feed daily demand, rooftop PV, ramp and mix records.","decisionRead":"Use observed records to settle due forecasts, never to imply future delivery.","eventDate":"2026-07-20","periodLabel":"Daily operating history","metricValue":5,"metricUnit":"minutes","metricLabel":"source resolution","sourceLabel":"AEMO WEM data service","sourceUrl":"https://data.wa.aemo.com.au/","sourceVersion":"Daily aggregates from five-minute source observations","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Observed","href":"/swis/operating-record","nextCheckpoint":"Daily source refresh","tags":["demand","rooftop PV","generation mix"]},{"recordKey":"california-equipment-removal-archive","marketCode":"US-CA","marketName":"California solar equipment market","geography":"California","stage":"permission","status":"Monitored","title":"Equipment noticed for removal has a visible archival path","summary":"Removed equipment moves from the current equipment lists into archived lists.","decisionRead":"The transition between current and archived status is the market-access event.","eventDate":"2026-07-20","periodLabel":"Current programme rule","metricValue":null,"metricUnit":null,"metricLabel":null,"sourceLabel":"California Energy Commission Solar Equipment Lists","sourceUrl":"https://www.energy.ca.gov/programs-and-topics/programs/solar-equipment-lists","sourceVersion":"Solar Equipment Lists programme, retrieved July 2026","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Administrative","href":"/certifications","nextCheckpoint":"Next removal notice or archived-list edition","tags":["California","modules","market access"]},{"recordKey":"approved-product-four-list-baseline","marketCode":"AU-SRES","marketName":"Australian small-scale renewable market","geography":"Australia","stage":"permission","status":"Monitored","title":"Four approved-product source baselines retain exact-model evidence","summary":"Australian module, inverter and battery files plus California modules are versioned.","decisionRead":"Listing establishes eligibility, not product quality or site suitability.","eventDate":"2026-07-20","periodLabel":"Baseline established","metricValue":4,"metricUnit":"lists","metricLabel":"versioned source baselines","sourceLabel":"Clean Energy Regulator publication of Clean Energy Council approved products, and California Energy Commission","sourceUrl":"https://cer.gov.au/schemes/renewable-energy-target/small-scale-renewable-energy-scheme/small-scale-technology-certificates/create-small-scale-technology-certificates","sourceVersion":"baseline-2026-07-20","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Administrative","href":"/certifications","nextCheckpoint":"Weekly source check; monthly change publication","tags":["modules","inverters","batteries","eligibility"]},{"recordKey":"wem-2026-anticipated-capacity-2028-29","marketCode":"AU-WEM","marketName":"Western Australia WEM","geography":"SWIS","stage":"delivery","status":"Conditional","title":"Anticipated capacity determines when the modelled shortfall opens","summary":"AEMO identifies 622 MW of anticipated capacity in 2028-29.","decisionRead":"Track assets into committed and operating status rather than treating the aggregate as delivered.","eventDate":"2026-07-15","periodLabel":"2028-29 Capacity Year","metricValue":622,"metricUnit":"MW","metricLabel":"anticipated capacity","sourceLabel":"AEMO 2026 WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities","sourceUrl":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/wem-forecasting-and-planning/wem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-wem-esoo","sourceVersion":"2026 WEM ESOO, Expected scenario","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Forecast","href":"/wem-esoo-2026-outlook","nextCheckpoint":"Project commitment and commissioning changes","tags":["capacity","project delivery","SWIS"]},{"recordKey":"wem-2026-capacity-balance-2028-29","marketCode":"AU-WEM","marketName":"Western Australia WEM","geography":"SWIS","stage":"forecast","status":"Conditional","title":"Existing and committed capacity remains above target through 2028-29","summary":"AEMO records a 347 MW forecast capacity balance in 2028-29.","decisionRead":"The balance depends on committed assets arriving and is not an observed reliability margin.","eventDate":"2026-07-15","periodLabel":"2028-29 Capacity Year","metricValue":347,"metricUnit":"MW","metricLabel":"forecast capacity balance","sourceLabel":"AEMO 2026 WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities","sourceUrl":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/wem-forecasting-and-planning/wem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-wem-esoo","sourceVersion":"2026 WEM ESOO, Expected scenario","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Forecast","href":"/forecast-accountability","nextCheckpoint":"2028-29 Reserve Capacity and observed operating releases","tags":["capacity","reliability","SWIS"]},{"recordKey":"wem-vpp-peak-reduction-validation","marketCode":"AU-WEM","marketName":"Western Australia WEM","geography":"SWIS","stage":"operation","status":"Awaiting outcome","title":"The modelled VPP contribution now has an operating test","summary":"AEMO forecasts about 200 MW of peak-demand reduction in 2028-29.","decisionRead":"The 2026-27 Hot Season is the first named operating checkpoint.","eventDate":"2026-07-15","periodLabel":"2028-29 forecast; 2026-27 validation","metricValue":200,"metricUnit":"MW","metricLabel":"forecast peak reduction","sourceLabel":"AEMO 2026 WEM Electricity Statement of Opportunities","sourceUrl":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/electricity/wholesale-electricity-market-wem/wem-forecasting-and-planning/wem-electricity-statement-of-opportunities-wem-esoo","sourceVersion":"2026 WEM ESOO, Expected scenario","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Forecast","href":"/swis/operating-record","nextCheckpoint":"AEMO 2026-27 Hot Season VPP performance","tags":["VPP","distributed batteries","peak demand"]},{"recordKey":"australia-home-battery-program-2026","marketCode":"AU-SRES","marketName":"Australian small-scale renewable market","geography":"Australia","stage":"delivery","status":"Observed","title":"The home-battery programme has crossed 400,000 systems","summary":"The Australian programme record passed 400,000 supported systems.","decisionRead":"The count is programme delivery, not installed energy capacity or peak availability.","eventDate":"2026-07-10","periodLabel":"Programme to July 2026","metricValue":400000,"metricUnit":"systems","metricLabel":"supported systems","sourceLabel":"Australian Government Cheaper Home Batteries programme","sourceUrl":"https://www.energy.gov.au/rebates/cheaper-home-batteries-program","sourceVersion":"Programme record cited July 2026","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Observed","href":"/global-behind-the-meter-storage-2025","nextCheckpoint":"Monthly CER installation vintage","tags":["batteries","programme","Australia"]},{"recordKey":"isp2026-rooftop-solar-2050","marketCode":"AU-NEM","marketName":"Australian National Electricity Market","geography":"NEM","stage":"forecast","status":"Open forecast","title":"The 2026 ISP carries rooftop and small-scale solar to 87 GW","summary":"The Step Change scenario rises to 87 GW in 2050.","decisionRead":"Adoption, network settings and policy remain dependencies, not delivered capacity.","eventDate":"2026-06-25","periodLabel":"2050","metricValue":87,"metricUnit":"GW","metricLabel":"forecast rooftop and small-scale solar","sourceLabel":"AEMO 2026 Integrated System Plan","sourceUrl":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2026-integrated-system-plan-isp","sourceVersion":"2026 ISP, Step Change scenario","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Forecast","href":"/forecast-ledger","nextCheckpoint":"Next ISP edition and annual installed-capacity record","tags":["rooftop solar","ISP","NEM"]},{"recordKey":"isp2026-small-batteries-2030","marketCode":"AU-NEM","marketName":"Australian National Electricity Market","geography":"NEM","stage":"forecast","status":"Open forecast","title":"Small batteries are forecast to reach 12 GW and 33 GWh by 2030","summary":"The Step Change scenario carries small batteries to 33 GWh in 2030.","decisionRead":"Power and energy capacity must remain paired; counts cannot settle the forecast.","eventDate":"2026-06-25","periodLabel":"2030","metricValue":33,"metricUnit":"GWh","metricLabel":"forecast small-battery energy capacity","sourceLabel":"AEMO 2026 Integrated System Plan","sourceUrl":"https://www.aemo.com.au/energy-systems/major-publications/integrated-system-plan-isp/2026-integrated-system-plan-isp","sourceVersion":"2026 ISP, Step Change scenario","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Forecast","href":"/forecast-ledger","nextCheckpoint":"CER and AEMO distributed-battery releases","tags":["batteries","ISP","NEM"]},{"recordKey":"cpia-hjt-2030-revision","marketCode":"GLOBAL-PV","marketName":"Global PV technology roadmaps","geography":"Global","stage":"revision","status":"Changed","title":"The HJT 2030 share projection moved from 20% to 7.5%","summary":"Successive CPIA roadmap editions reduced the 2030 HJT share by 12.5 percentage points.","decisionRead":"The newer edition does not erase the earlier planning assumption.","eventDate":"2026-06-11","periodLabel":"2030 roadmap endpoint","metricValue":-12.5,"metricUnit":"percentage points","metricLabel":"roadmap revision","sourceLabel":"CPIA roadmaps documented by Solar Analytica","sourceUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning","sourceVersion":"Roadmap comparison reviewed June 2026","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Revision","href":"/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning","nextCheckpoint":"Next CPIA roadmap edition","tags":["HJT","technology roadmap","revision"]},{"recordKey":"ntype-wafer-share-overtaken","marketCode":"GLOBAL-PV","marketName":"Global PV technology roadmaps","geography":"Global","stage":"revision","status":"Changed","title":"Observed n-type wafer share overtook an earlier 2030 roadmap endpoint","summary":"ITRPV records n-type wafer share near 82%, above an earlier 2030 expectation.","decisionRead":"Roadmap endpoints must stay beside later observations so direction and timing can be marked.","eventDate":"2026-06-11","periodLabel":"2025 observation versus 2030 roadmap","metricValue":82,"metricUnit":"%","metricLabel":"observed n-type wafer share","sourceLabel":"ITRPV 17th edition documented by Solar Analytica","sourceUrl":"https://solaranalytica.com/monosilicon-2030-scenario-planning","sourceVersion":"ITRPV 17th edition, June 2026","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Revision","href":"/forecast-ledger","nextCheckpoint":"Next ITRPV edition","tags":["n-type","wafer","roadmap"]},{"recordKey":"global-solar-pipeline-february-2026","marketCode":"GLOBAL","marketName":"Global utility-scale solar","geography":"Global","stage":"delivery","status":"Observed","title":"Operating and prospective solar remain separate pipeline states","summary":"GEM reports 2,093 GWac operating and 2,247 GWac prospective in February 2026.","decisionRead":"Prospective capacity is not a forecast and does not imply delivery.","eventDate":"2026-02-01","periodLabel":"February 2026","metricValue":2093,"metricUnit":"GWac","metricLabel":"operating utility-scale solar","sourceLabel":"Global Energy Monitor Global Solar Power Tracker","sourceUrl":"https://globalenergymonitor.org/projects/global-solar-power-tracker","sourceVersion":"February 2026 release","dataConfidence":"High","evidenceType":"Observed","href":"/capacity-pipeline","nextCheckpoint":"Next Global Solar Power Tracker release","tags":["utility-scale solar","pipeline","global"]}]}