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Independent research on solar, climate and electricity markets. Public records, clear methods. Every figure, sourced.
In focus / Great Britain
Ofgem's connection figures describe contracted offers, not the load that will arrive. The distinction changes how we read the data centre build-out.
Data centres are included in the total queue. Measured peak is shown for scale, not as a like-for-like forecast.
Ofgem, Curate: Demand Connections Reform, 29 July 2026, executive summary and paragraphs 2.7 and 2.8. November 2024 and June 2025; peak demand 2025.
Market structures
The value factor of NEM rooftop solar, from AEMO's half-hourly rooftop estimate and five-minute prices: between 0.78 and 0.98 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.02 and 0.31 in 2025, below the solar farms in every region, and below zero in Victoria across 2023. Reconciled to AEMO's published figures; wholesale system value, not what households are paid.
SWIS reference
Rooftop solar per resident in the SWIS screening boundary, 2011 to 2025, computed from CER postcode records and ABS population for the same 246 areas. It sets out why no other market can be placed on the path yet: the cross-market series the site holds mixes rooftop with utility-scale solar and does not document its population denominator.
Market structures
The value factor of NEM utility-scale solar, computed from AEMO's five-minute record: between 0.78 and 1.06 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.28 and 0.53 in 2025. In Queensland, 49.5 per cent of 2025 utility solar output was generated at a negative price. Reconciled to AEMO's own published figures; wholesale system value, not project revenue.
Start with a place. Compare its grid, production climate and economics.
Australia's operating recordCompare scenarios and investigate what solar is worth under real constraints.
Value under constraintThe answer is only useful if you can inspect what it rests on.
Named records and dated observations travel with the findings.
Assumptions, calculations and limits remain visible.
Published corrections keep the earlier record in view.