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Independent research on solar, climate and electricity markets. Public records, clear methods. Every figure, sourced.
In focus / Great Britain
Ofgem's connection figures describe contracted offers, not the load that will arrive. The distinction changes how we read the data centre build-out.
Data centres are included in the total queue. Measured peak is shown for scale, not as a like-for-like forecast.
Ofgem, Curate: Demand Connections Reform, 29 July 2026, executive summary and paragraphs 2.7 and 2.8. November 2024 and June 2025; peak demand 2025.
Market structures
The value factor of NEM utility-scale solar, computed from AEMO's five-minute record: between 0.78 and 1.06 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.28 and 0.53 in 2025. In Queensland, 49.5 per cent of 2025 utility solar output was generated at a negative price. Reconciled to AEMO's own published figures; wholesale system value, not project revenue.
Forecast accountability
AEMO's own Forecast Accuracy Reports grade its Central forecast of installed rooftop PV at -2.2%, -6.5% and then +5.5% across three consecutive ESOOs, with the last over-forecast in every NEM region. AEMO attributes both directions to one assumption, the growth in average system size. The actuals are provisional and the horizon is under a year.
SWIS policy
The Coordinator of Energy's draft 2026 Benchmark Technology Review proposes an E-Class simple cycle gas turbine as the reference technology for both Peak and Flexible capacity prices, replacing the 200 MW six-hour battery. The trigger was a storage duration requirement rising from six to seven hours, and the shortlist changed because an emissions threshold assumed in 2025 was not applied. Consultation closes 7 October 2026.
Start with a place. Compare its grid, production climate and economics.
Australia's operating recordCompare scenarios and investigate what solar is worth under real constraints.
Value under constraintThe answer is only useful if you can inspect what it rests on.
Named records and dated observations travel with the findings.
Assumptions, calculations and limits remain visible.
Published corrections keep the earlier record in view.