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In focus / Great Britain

23rd August 2026

A connection queue is not a demand forecast.

Ofgem's connection figures describe contracted offers, not the load that will arrive. The distinction changes how we read the data centre build-out.

Great Britain's demand connection queue against measured peak

Queue, Jun 2025: 125 GW
Data centres in queue: ~73 GW
GB peak demand, 2025: 45 GW
Queue, Nov 2024: 41 GW
Other queue, approximate calculated remainder (125 minus around 73 GW): 52 GW

Data centres are included in the total queue. Measured peak is shown for scale, not as a like-for-like forecast.

Source and basis

Ofgem, Curate: Demand Connections Reform, 29 July 2026, executive summary and paragraphs 2.7 and 2.8. November 2024 and June 2025; peak demand 2025.

Read the research Figure data Ofgem / Curate consultation / 29 Jul 2026

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Market structures

SWIS Rooftop Solar Was Worth Under an Eighth of the Average Price in 2024

The value factor of solar in Western Australia's SWIS from AEMO's WEM data, split at the 1 October 2023 market reform and never joined across it. In 2024 rooftop solar's was between -0.000071 and 0.12 across AEMO's two rooftop estimates, with about half its energy produced at a negative price and 44 Trading Intervals at the price floor. Before the reform rooftop solar was between 0.61 and 0.68 and the five listed solar farms between 0.71 and 0.87. Wholesale system value, not revenue.

20th October 2026

Market structures

Rooftop Solar's Wholesale Value Fell Further Than the Solar Farms'

The value factor of NEM rooftop solar, from AEMO's half-hourly rooftop estimate and five-minute prices: between 0.78 and 0.98 of the average wholesale price in 2019, between 0.02 and 0.31 in 2025, below the solar farms in every region, and below zero in Victoria across 2023. Reconciled to AEMO's published figures; wholesale system value, not what households are paid.

6th October 2026

SWIS reference

Watts per Person: Measuring the SWIS Rooftop Path Before Comparing It

Rooftop solar per resident in the SWIS screening boundary, 2011 to 2025, computed from CER postcode records and ABS population for the same 246 areas. It sets out why no other market can be placed on the path yet: the cross-market series the site holds mixes rooftop with utility-scale solar and does not document its population denominator.

3rd October 2026

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