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The Transition Delivery Ledger preserves what was forecast, what gained permission, what was delivered, what operated in the measured record and what later changed. Each handoff keeps its source vintage and evidence boundary.
A forecast and an operating observation are not competing versions of the same fact. The records between them explain whether permission, project delivery or a changed assumption moved the outcome.
Open
5
future or conditional checkpoints
Observed
3
records with measured outcomes
Stages
5
distinct evidence states
Evidence path
12 of 12 records shown. Select a stage to isolate one handoff in the delivery chain.
Stage
AEMO records a 347 MW forecast capacity balance in 2028-29.
Decision read: The balance depends on committed assets arriving and is not an observed reliability margin.
The Step Change scenario rises to 87 GW in 2050.
Decision read: Adoption, network settings and policy remain dependencies, not delivered capacity.
The Step Change scenario carries small batteries to 33 GWh in 2030.
Decision read: Power and energy capacity must remain paired; counts cannot settle the forecast.
Stage
Removed equipment moves from the current equipment lists into archived lists.
Decision read: The transition between current and archived status is the market-access event.
Australian module, inverter and battery files plus California modules are versioned.
Decision read: Listing establishes eligibility, not product quality or site suitability.
Stage
AEMO identifies 622 MW of anticipated capacity in 2028-29.
Decision read: Track assets into committed and operating status rather than treating the aggregate as delivered.
The Australian programme record passed 400,000 supported systems.
Decision read: The count is programme delivery, not installed energy capacity or peak availability.
GEM reports 2,093 GWac operating and 2,247 GWac prospective in February 2026.
Decision read: Prospective capacity is not a forecast and does not imply delivery.
Stage
Five-minute WEM observations feed daily demand, rooftop PV, ramp and mix records.
Decision read: Use observed records to settle due forecasts, never to imply future delivery.
AEMO forecasts about 200 MW of peak-demand reduction in 2028-29.
Decision read: The 2026-27 Hot Season is the first named operating checkpoint.
Stage
Successive CPIA roadmap editions reduced the 2030 HJT share by 12.5 percentage points.
Decision read: The newer edition does not erase the earlier planning assumption.
ITRPV records n-type wafer share near 82%, above an earlier 2030 expectation.
Decision read: Roadmap endpoints must stay beside later observations so direction and timing can be marked.
A record moves only when a named source supports the new state. Missing evidence remains missing, and a scenario is not scored as a failed prediction unless its own comparison contract permits that reading.
Retain the publisher, edition, scenario, denominator, horizon and assumptions exactly as released.
Record whether policy, certification, connection or programme rules permit the product or project to proceed.
Separate announced, anticipated, committed, construction and commissioned states.
Add authoritative observed outcomes only when the relevant period and source release exist.
Preserve what changed between editions instead of silently replacing the earlier claim.
Each monthly edition freezes the records, source vintages and open checkpoints visible at publication. Material revisions can enter Signals sooner; the monthly edition remains the citable checkpoint.
The public ledger and methodology remain open. Research access adds complete edition history, scoped alerts, structured exports and evidence packs for a defined market decision.