A source-backed feed of operating events, market movements and verified research releases. Each signal names the measurement, the source and the decision it changes.
A negative price marks a five-minute interval where supply outran what the market could absorb at any positive price. This ledger keeps every such day in the National Electricity Market record: which regions carry them, how much of each day ran negative, and how they cluster across the year.
Read the flexibility synthesisAutomated event ledger
Each event is generated from a defined threshold or a previous-record comparison. It names the measurement and source without presenting the detection as a causal conclusion.
Matching events
300
Systems represented
3
Extreme events
48
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 64.9% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 56.4% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 74.7% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 57.8% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 74.9% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 66.4% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 58.6% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 74.8% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 68.9% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
extreme
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 84.2% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 51.4% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 66.3% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 55.5% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 70.0% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 67.5% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 54.6% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 66.9% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Great Britain
Renewable majority · GB
Wind, solar, hydro and biomass supplied 56.6% of positive reported generation and imports for the day.
A renewable-majority day tests how the system balances variable output, interconnection and dispatchable low-carbon generation across the full operating cycle.
notable
Great Britain
High low-carbon share · GB
Renewables and nuclear reached 68.4% of positive reported generation and imports.
High low-carbon penetration shows how much thermal generation the system can displace while maintaining the required operating balance.
notable
Australian NEM
Negative-price day · NSW1
56 five-minute intervals, or 4.7 hours, settled below zero during the operating day.
Sustained negative prices expose the value of flexible load, storage and controllable generation while weakening unshifted merchant solar capture.
notable
Australian NEM
Negative-price day · QLD1
62 five-minute intervals, or 5.2 hours, settled below zero during the operating day.
Sustained negative prices expose the value of flexible load, storage and controllable generation while weakening unshifted merchant solar capture.
extreme
Australian NEM
Negative-price day · SA1
265 five-minute intervals, or 22.1 hours, settled below zero during the operating day.
Sustained negative prices expose the value of flexible load, storage and controllable generation while weakening unshifted merchant solar capture.
extreme
Australian NEM
Negative-price day · TAS1
162 five-minute intervals, or 13.5 hours, settled below zero during the operating day.
Sustained negative prices expose the value of flexible load, storage and controllable generation while weakening unshifted merchant solar capture.
extreme
Australian NEM
Negative-price day · VIC1
175 five-minute intervals, or 14.6 hours, settled below zero during the operating day.
Sustained negative prices expose the value of flexible load, storage and controllable generation while weakening unshifted merchant solar capture.
Showing 24 of 300 matching events
The Commonwealth announced on 5 August 2026 that the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme threshold rises from 100 kW to 1 MW, taking around 20 per cent off the installed cost of a medium-sized system: about $68,000 on a 250 kW system and about $136,000 on a 500 kW system. Australia holds 22 GW of residential solar against roughly 5.6 GW commercial, most of it below the current 100 kW ceiling, on Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis figures the release cites.
Read the releaseWhy it matters
Commencement is expected 1 October 2026, subject to the necessary regulations being in place, so this is recorded as announced rather than in force. The 100 kW line has bounded how large a system gets built, not only what it costs, and the shape of the size distribution on either side of it is the measurable test of that claim once the threshold moves.
Affected
Signals are not a news stream. They are a concise record of releases and verified changes that move the available evidence, its method or the way a decision should be read.
41 matching releases
Monthly briefingMarkets and value
Market update
Incentive structure
The Commonwealth announced on 5 August 2026 that the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme threshold rises from 100 kW to 1 MW, taking around 20 per cent off the installed cost of a medium-sized system: about $68,000 on a 250 kW system and about $136,000 on a 500 kW system. Australia holds 22 GW of residential solar against roughly 5.6 GW commercial, most of it below the current 100 kW ceiling, on Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis figures the release cites.
Decision read
Commencement is expected 1 October 2026, subject to the necessary regulations being in place, so this is recorded as announced rather than in force. The 100 kW line has bounded how large a system gets built, not only what it costs, and the shape of the size distribution on either side of it is the measurable test of that claim once the threshold moves.
Risk and accountability
Publication
Grid methodology
The report separates production and consumption accounting, operational and lifecycle factors, imports, storage treatment, temporal resolution and source revisions.
Decision read
Carbon values are comparable only after geography, interval and accounting basis match. The grid-source layer now exposes those choices and leaves intensity blank below 95 per cent mapped generation coverage.
Risk and accountability
Data release
4 changes
Forecast accountability
Four dated third-party forecasts enter the public ledger: AEMO's 2028-29 capacity balance, its 2026-27 rooftop PV stock, its 2028-29 coordinated-VPP peak reduction, and the Oxford Economics FY30 data-centre consumption figure AEMO publishes.
Decision read
Each is recorded with its claimant, vintage and horizon before the period closes, so the marking cannot be written after the outcome is known. None is settled yet: all four are pending, and the record says so.
Grid and delivery
Publication
SWIS operations
The report joins rooftop-solar pressure, evening ramps, distributed-asset visibility, coordinated flexibility and forecast accountability without calling every SWIS threshold globally portable.
Decision read
International readers gain a reusable operating-question set while the observed SWIS record, AEMO forecasts and Solar Analytica scenarios remain separate evidence classes.
Markets and value
Publication
Solar economics
The WA case keeps import displacement, DEBS export, storage and curtailment separate, then joins the current tariff edition to the fixed SWIS distributed-asset baseline.
Decision read
Installed capacity no longer answers the value question alone. Location, interval, load, export permission and flexible response become the next measurable market layer.
Grid and delivery
Publication
Grid synthesis
Five 2025 systems are compared across variable-renewable share and production carbon intensity while ramps, congestion, storage and market availability remain explicitly outside the annual measure.
Decision read
Readers can move from annual transition context into operator evidence without treating generation share as dispatchable capability.
Grid and delivery
Data release
Monthly reference
The August reference edition keeps annual context, NEM and SWIS operator records, distributed adoption and market-value evidence in separate source-versioned lanes.
Decision read
A monthly metric-change record can now support briefs, watches and later accountability without compressing incompatible evidence into one national score.
Grid and delivery
Publication
0 changes
SWIS scenarios
A fixed May 2026 CER baseline now sits beside a separately classified 2030 conditional range for small-scale solar and distributed batteries.
Decision read
Networks, aggregators and market participants can test decisions across materially different 2030 asset states without treating the range as an AEMO forecast or a probability distribution.
Technology and assets
Publication
Standards
Amendment 2 to AS/NZS 4777.2:2020 took effect on 23 August 2025. Mode 4, with the inverter in the wall-side supply equipment, is settled and carries listed products. Mode 3, with the inverter in the vehicle, is permitted but its listing route is not resolved.
Decision read
Compliance and compatibility are different questions, and a listed inverter does not make a given vehicle pairing supported. The three Australian Tesla test entries are cited individually with their own dates rather than as a running total.
Grid and delivery
Publication
SWIS policy
Energy Policy WA has seven proposals out on how distributed energy data is collected, verified and shared across the SWIS. The brief names three limitations met while building the SWIS picture: postcode-to-network allocation, a twelve-month certificate lag, and capacity published where a constraint series is needed.
Decision read
Submissions close 5pm AWST on 18 August 2026. The brief states gaps in the public record and is explicit that it is not a submission or a position on the proposals.
Markets and value
Method update
Solar economics
The WA temporal value model now prices self-consumption by the hour it lands rather than at a single flat rate, and sizes storage anywhere from 0 to 50 kWh instead of offering two fixed options.
Decision read
Under a time-of-use tariff the model puts the strongest net present value below both battery sizes previously offered, and shows self-consumed energy losing most of its value once it falls outside the evening peak. Both results are now testable against a specific household rather than assumed from a flat-rate default.
Resource and climate
Publication
Climate attribution
Removing anthropogenic warming drops 70 of 71 recently bleached regions below moderate risk. At the 2025 temperature level, warming outweighs a strong El Nino in 71 of 74 regions where both signals are statistically significant.
Decision read
Familiar natural variability now operates on a materially warmer ocean baseline, but the observed record, modelled counterfactual and SSP3-7.0 projection must remain separate evidence layers.
Risk and accountability
Data release
12 changes
Transition accountability
Twelve bounded records now separate forecasts, market permission, delivery dependencies, observed operation and later revisions across the initial Australian and global solar cohort.
Decision read
A forecast can now be followed without treating approval as delivery, delivery as operation or a revised assumption as the original claim.
Risk and accountability
Publication
Australian evidence
The register joins Australian product eligibility, distributed adoption, grid operation, realised storage-market capture, regulated tariffs and forecast accountability into one fixed reference edition, with a quality declaration and verification boundary published beside each layer.
Decision read
A reader can now trace one claim, such as a battery's realised market capture, through to the eligibility list, the adoption data and the tariff basis it depends on, without those layers living in five separate places with no stated connection.
Resource and climate
Publication
Climate science
A 7,083-run Caltech-Google ensemble finds a positive +0.14 W/m2/K warming-only feedback and a stronger +0.43 W/m2/K total response in the combined +4 K and quadrupled-CO2 state.
Decision read
The result strengthens process-level evidence for positive, state-dependent low-cloud feedback without revising global equilibrium climate sensitivity or establishing a cloud tipping threshold.
Grid and delivery
Publication
Market data
A July 2026 Ember analysis finds seven EU countries could connect about 25 gigawatts of new wind and solar, roughly 18 per cent of what they plan to add by 2030, by co-locating it behind the connection points their existing hydropower plants already hold.
Decision read
The mechanism substitutes existing connection headroom for new grid build, and because it depends on hydro's connection capacity rather than anything specific to Europe's grid, the same approach travels to any market with underused hydro connections.
Risk and accountability
Publication
Forecast accountability
The report finds AEMO's one data-centre demand forecast produces two different published percentages depending on the denominator: almost 10 per cent of underlying demand by 2050, or 12 per cent of grid-supplied consumption by FY50, with the gap between them mostly rooftop solar.
Decision read
A data-centre demand percentage is not comparable across sources until the denominator is stated, and citing the larger or smaller of the two without saying which basis it uses is a choice, not a neutral fact.
Technology and assets
Publication
Market structures
Western Australia has committed up to A$150 million in grant funding to a 50 megawatt, 500 megawatt-hour, ten-hour vanadium flow battery for the Goldfields. The tender closed on 20 July 2026 with no proponent named, no site confirmed and no total capital cost yet public.
Decision read
Read as a procurement case study rather than a settled project, it shows long-duration storage being chosen on the duty the asset must do and on the supply chain a government can own, ahead of the commercial detail that is still undisclosed.
Risk and accountability
Publication
0 changes
SWIS outlook
A new brief reads AEMO's ten-year Expected scenario alongside the observed SWIS record without treating forecast capacity, VPP behaviour or demand as measured outcomes.
Decision read
The near-term 347 MW forecast surplus in 2028-29 and the forecast shortfall from 2029-30 are planning scenarios whose delivery and modelling assumptions remain explicit.
Technology and assets
Data release
0 changes
Product evidence
The monitored record now holds current Australian module, inverter and battery files plus the California PV module list, with source versions and retrieval times retained.
Decision read
An exact-model absence is now returned only after the required source baseline for that jurisdiction is complete; later source versions generate additions, removals, relistings, expiries and changed-detail events.
Risk and accountability
Method update
0 changes
Research standard
Grid Mix now distinguishes provider annual releases, versioned ledger rows and fixed published snapshots, while the methodology names licensed inputs instead of making a blanket public-source claim.
Decision read
Readers can distinguish observation year, publisher status and retrieval date before carrying a figure into another decision or model.
Grid and delivery
Method update
0 changes
SWIS reference
The two recent CER installation windows are retained as recorded cohorts but are no longer interpreted as demand momentum; the 2025 ABS population value is marked preliminary and 2022-2024 revised.
Decision read
The reference edition remains citable while preventing recent STC validation lag or preliminary population estimates from being mistaken for settled market change.
Grid and delivery
Data release
Energy data
Each Grid Mix Monitor system now has a monthly transition view from 2016, joining Ember generation and carbon-intensity series to a named NASA POWER solar-resource reference point.
Decision read
The monitor can now distinguish a lasting change in market mix from a single bright or dim month, while keeping the boundary clear: reference-point irradiance is not yet a capacity-weighted national solar index.
Grid and delivery
Data release
Energy data
A new open comparison surface tracks the 2025 annual generation mix, renewable share, solar share and carbon intensity across ten selected electricity systems.
Decision read
The operating context for solar can now be compared across systems without confusing annual national generation with real-time dispatch or every sub-grid within a country.
Markets and value
Data release
Market structures
The first quarterly capture ledger covers all 60 bidirectional batteries registered in the National Electricity Market, with commissioning units flagged separately from full-quarter assets.
Decision read
The gap between a perfect-foresight spread reference and observed energy-only capture is now measurable by region, duration and asset context rather than left as a model assumption.
Markets and value
Publication
Market structures
Solar Analytica begins a dedicated line for the indices, spreads and realised capture that frame storage revenue cases, starting with a transparent NEM battery reference.
Decision read
The research scope now reaches beyond the asset and its resource into the market arrangements that determine what an operating system can capture.
Markets and value
Data release
Solar economics
The price-times-yield join is now available as an interactive reference across 28 matched markets, sortable by value, sunlight and retail price.
Decision read
It makes the demand side of solar economics visible: retail tariffs move annual grid-offset value far more than the spread in sunlight alone.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
The annual synthesis closes the first production-climate series, joining the latest readings for heat, sky conditions, variability, soiling, wind and physical risk.
Decision read
Climate belongs in an operating assumption set, not as a single headline risk: its effects on PV vary materially by location, technology and time horizon.
Markets and value
Publication
Production climate
The series capstone joins every climate variable to yield and local tariff across 23 priced markets, finding the ranking inverts: dim Berlin earns more per kilowatt than all but two markets, while sun-rich Riyadh ranks 21st.
Decision read
The tariff spread across these markets is 20 to 1 against a sunlight spread of barely 2 to 1, which is the report's central finding stated as a number: price, not sun, decides where a kilowatt is worth the most.
Technology and assets
Publication
Scenario planning
The report aggregates ITRPV, CPIA, Exawatt and NREL roadmaps into a scenario range for 2030's monocrystalline-silicon technology mix, after finding the underlying roadmaps disagree by wide margins and revise within a single year.
Decision read
Procurement and capex planning against a single confident 2030 forecast is planning against a number the industry's own roadmaps do not agree on, and a scenario range is the more honest input.
Markets and value
Data release
Solar economics
The demand-side dataset tracks household retail tariffs across 92 cities and 70 countries from 2016 to 2025, preserving confidence notes where a local series is less certain.
Decision read
A credible solar-market screen needs both the resource and the price it displaces. High sun alone is not a proxy for household solar value.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
The report prices whether a system survives rather than how much it produces, finding hail seriously threatens only Johannesburg and Sydney among 40 markets, extreme wind governs 13, flood 11, and five markets face no material hazard at all.
Decision read
The mount specification and the insurance reserve, not the annual kilowatt-hour figure, are where these storm risks are felt, and they vary by peril and by market rather than by climate zone alone.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
Mean wind speed across 40 markets runs from a near-still 1.8 metres per second in Bogota to 6.3 in Cape Town, and because wind barely tracks temperature, it is worth 3.6 to 6.9 per cent of output relative to still air and decides which hot markets get relief from the heat penalty.
Decision read
Two markets at the same temperature can carry very different heat losses depending on wind alone, and the humid tropics, hot and windless together, get none of this refund.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
Eighteen measured market-events from grid operators, fleets and peer-reviewed studies quantify smoke's solar yield impact, from 27 per cent off Sydney's rooftops in a single day to 9.5 per cent across the two months of Australia's Black Summer.
Decision read
Smoke is a recurring seasonal yield factor in exactly three regions and an occasional forecasting problem everywhere else, which is a different risk to price than treating it as a uniform global derate.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
The soiling baseline records annual energy loss from 1.5 per cent in rain-washed Berlin to a 20 per cent lower bound in the Gulf, and finds the deciding variable is not how much dust falls but how often rain above a few millimetres follows it. Seventeen markets carry an honest blank where no credible study exists.
Decision read
A single assumed soiling rate is wrong for most markets by a wide margin, and the record now states which markets have evidence behind their figure and which do not, rather than filling every row with an estimate.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
The report splits total irradiance into its beam and diffuse components across 40 markets, finding the diffuse share running from 19 per cent on the Atacama plateau to 63 per cent in Reykjavik.
Decision read
A tracker or bifacial module earns its price on the ratio, not the total, so the same annual sunlight figure can justify opposite hardware decisions depending on which market it comes from.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
The report joins twenty-one years of NASA and NOAA climate-driver data to show interannual irradiance variability running from 2.5 per cent in deserts to 8 per cent in the monsoon, driven by El Nino and La Nina redistributing cloud across hemispheres.
Decision read
The P90 figure on a proposal exists precisely to protect against this variability, and the report gives the first published basis for what that number covers, market by market.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
Two independent NASA instruments record 26 of 40 markets brightening and 14 dimming over two decades, from Berlin's plus 6.8 per cent to Jodhpur's minus 6.1 per cent, agreeing on the direction of change in 29 of the 40.
Decision read
Every percentage point of sky moves output almost one for one, so a market's brightening or dimming trend can be several times larger than its warming penalty and is the more consequential number to know.
Resource and climate
Publication
Production climate
Panels rated at 25 degrees Celsius run at a modelled 53 degrees in the average market, a static loss of 9.8 per cent of nameplate output before any warming trend is counted. Twenty years of NASA record put the additional 25-year warming penalty at roughly a third of a percentage point.
Decision read
The heat tax a system pays every day is an order of magnitude larger than the warming drift it will accumulate over its life, so module choice and mounting matter far more to yield than the climate trend does.
Technology and assets
Publication
Market data
The 2025 data record shows global energy storage additions breaking 100 GW for the first time, battery pack prices at a record low, and Australia's Cheaper Home Batteries Program moving 400,000 systems within a year of launch.
Decision read
Residential storage economics moved on two fronts at once, falling hardware cost and a large single-country subsidy event, which is why the report reads the 2025 data as a market inflection rather than a steady trend.
Technology and assets
Publication
Technology & safety
The report classifies residential lithium-ion storage by cathode chemistry, a four-layer safety certification stack and battery-management-system generation, rather than by product or brand.
Decision read
A specification decision now separates three independent questions, which chemistry carries which risk profile, which certification layers apply, and how mature the BMS generation is, rather than treating any one of them as a proxy for the others.
Research access is being developed for teams that need recurring data releases, evidence packs and exportable working material.