The industry publishes confident numbers for 2030 and quietly revises them. This ledger holds those claims: roadmap projections, program targets, and our own scenario endpoints, dated, sourced, and marked in public when the data arrives. Ours are on it by the same standard as everyone else's.
Projections observed data has already overtaken, as documented in the report that marked them. Several are figures we would otherwise have relied on, which is the point of writing them down.
Heterojunction (HJT) to reach 20% of the 2030 technology mix.
Marked 2026-06-11 · CPIA cut its own 2030 HJT forecast from 20% to 7.5% within about a year, alongside real financial distress at Meyer Burger and a continued shift of investment toward back-contact and tandem.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact long-run share as published in the prior edition.
Marked 2026-06-11 · ITRPV revised its own back-contact long-run share upward in its most recent edition.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact capacity builds toward 2030 on the conservative trajectory.
Marked 2026-06-11 · Committed and built back-contact capacity from LONGi and Aiko Solar alone already exceeds 100 GW, running ahead of the more conservative roadmap trajectories.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosPerovskite-silicon tandem lab efficiency above 34% expected only in the early 2030s.
Marked 2026-06-11 · Lab efficiency records ran above 34% by 2026, well ahead of most roadmaps' expectations for the early 2030s. Commercial share is a separate question: every scenario keeps commercial tandem under 5% through 2030.
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosClaims the data has not yet settled, including every endpoint of our own 2030 scenario model. They stay here, at their published values, until it does.
TOPCon shipment share in 2030: 50% low / 60% base / 70% high (65% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosBack-contact (BC/XBC) shipment share in 2030: 15% low / 23% base / 35% high (7% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosHJT/SHJ shipment share in 2030: 3% low / 8% base / 15% high (4.5% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosPerovskite-silicon tandem shipment share in 2030: 0.5% low / 2% base / 5% high (0.3% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosCommercial module efficiency, weighted average, in 2030: 24.0% low / 25.0% base / 26.0% high (23.5% in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosUtility flagship module power in 2030: 750 Wp low / 800 Wp base / 900 Wp high (770 Wp in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosGlobal module ASP, ex-tariff, in 2030: US$0.06/Wp low / US$0.08/Wp base / US$0.10/Wp high (US$0.09/Wp in 2025).
Documented in: Mono-Si 2030 ScenariosAllocated small-scale solar capacity in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 3.9 GW lower / 4.4 GW reference / 4.8 GW upper (3.17 GW in May 2026).
Documented in: WA / SWIS DER 2030Battery installation records in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 120,000 lower / 250,000 reference / 420,000 upper (43,150 in May 2026).
Documented in: WA / SWIS DER 2030Allocated usable battery energy in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 3.2 GWh lower / 5.5 GWh reference / 9.2 GWh upper (0.93 GWh in May 2026).
Documented in: WA / SWIS DER 2030Battery records per 100 frozen May-2026 solar records in 2030: 21 lower / 44 reference / 74 upper (7.6 in May 2026). This is a common reference scale, not a household attachment-rate forecast.
Documented in: WA / SWIS DER 2030Legacy NMC-chemistry fleet risk continues generating incident and remediation activity through at least 2026–2027.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery DecadeGlobal storage additions rise a further 41% in 2026, to 158 GW / 459 GWh (from a measured 112 GW / 307 GWh in 2025).
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025Annual storage additions reach 308 GW by 2036, a trajectory implying roughly 2.9 TW / 10.5 TWh of cumulative global capacity.
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025More than 2 million households install a battery by 2030 for an estimated 40 GWh of additional capacity, under the program's $7.2 billion December 2025 expansion.
Documented in: BTM Storage 2025LFP holds approximately 95% of the stationary storage market from 2026.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery DecadeNMC declines to roughly 1% of stationary storage share by 2030.
Documented in: Li-Ion Battery Decade47% of rooftop-solar-suitable NEM dwellings have rooftop solar by 2035, rising to 56% in 2050, when rooftop and small-scale solar capacity would be 87 GW (from 20 GW at over 36% of suitable dwellings today). (p. 40)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Utility-scale solar and wind capacity rises from about 23 GW today to 61 GW by 2030, 80 GW by 2035 and approximately 117 GW by 2050. (p. 78)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
64 GW / 640 GWh of dispatchable storage in the NEM by 2050. (p. 30)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Small-scale batteries grow from 5 GW / 12 GWh in April 2026 to 12 GW / 33 GWh in 2030, and then 35 GW / 78 GWh in 2050. (p. 41)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Most of the NEM's remaining coal fleet withdraws by 2038, with all to withdraw by 2049. (p. 6; section 5.2 phrases the same path as nearly two thirds retiring by 2035, all by 2050)
Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)
Existing and committed peak capacity of 6,670 MW in 2028-29 against a 6,323 MW Peak Reserve Capacity Target: a 347 MW surplus. From 2029-30 the same measure turns negative.
Documented in: 2026 WEM ESOODistributed rooftop PV capacity in the SWIS of about 3,100 MW in 2026-27, rising to about 6,000 MW by 2035-36.
Documented in: 2026 WEM ESOOApproximately 200 MW of annual peak-demand reduction from coordinated distributed batteries in 2028-29, being a 50 per cent availability factor applied to 640 MW projected to be coordinated through Synergy virtual power plants.
Documented in: 2026 WEM ESOOAustralian data centre consumption of 12.0 TWh by FY30 under Step Change, being 6 per cent of the NEM's grid-supplied electricity, growing at an average 25.1 per cent a year from 3.9 TWh in FY25.
Documented in: Data Centre Denominators