Claims about the future, kept where the future can find them.

N-type mono-Si wafer share, reported at 70% for 2024, climbs to the low-80s only over a multi-year path.

Marked 2026-06-11 · The newest industry roadmap put the 2025 figure at approximately 82%, a twelve-point jump inside twelve months, already ahead of most 2024-vintage roadmaps' full multi-year path to that level (ITRPV 17th edition, June 2026; TaiyangNews comparative analysis).

Heterojunction (HJT) to reach 20% of the 2030 technology mix.

Marked 2026-06-11 · CPIA cut its own 2030 HJT forecast from 20% to 7.5% within about a year, alongside real financial distress at Meyer Burger and a continued shift of investment toward back-contact and tandem.

Back-contact long-run share as published in the prior edition.

Marked 2026-06-11 · ITRPV revised its own back-contact long-run share upward in its most recent edition.

Back-contact capacity builds toward 2030 on the conservative trajectory.

Marked 2026-06-11 · Committed and built back-contact capacity from LONGi and Aiko Solar alone already exceeds 100 GW, running ahead of the more conservative roadmap trajectories.

Perovskite-silicon tandem lab efficiency above 34% expected only in the early 2030s.

Marked 2026-06-11 · Lab efficiency records ran above 34% by 2026, well ahead of most roadmaps' expectations for the early 2030s. Commercial share is a separate question: every scenario keeps commercial tandem under 5% through 2030.

TOPCon shipment share in 2030: 50% low / 60% base / 70% high (65% in 2025).

Back-contact (BC/XBC) shipment share in 2030: 15% low / 23% base / 35% high (7% in 2025).

HJT/SHJ shipment share in 2030: 3% low / 8% base / 15% high (4.5% in 2025).

Perovskite-silicon tandem shipment share in 2030: 0.5% low / 2% base / 5% high (0.3% in 2025).

Commercial module efficiency, weighted average, in 2030: 24.0% low / 25.0% base / 26.0% high (23.5% in 2025).

Utility flagship module power in 2030: 750 Wp low / 800 Wp base / 900 Wp high (770 Wp in 2025).

Global module ASP, ex-tariff, in 2030: US$0.06/Wp low / US$0.08/Wp base / US$0.10/Wp high (US$0.09/Wp in 2025).

Allocated small-scale solar capacity in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 3.9 GW lower / 4.4 GW reference / 4.8 GW upper (3.17 GW in May 2026).

Measured against · the record today, 3,240.71, on the claims register.

Battery installation records in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 120,000 lower / 250,000 reference / 420,000 upper (43,150 in May 2026).

Measured against · the record today, 51,982, on the claims register.

Allocated usable battery energy in the public SWIS extent in 2030: 3.2 GWh lower / 5.5 GWh reference / 9.2 GWh upper (0.93 GWh in May 2026).

Measured against · the record today, 1,122.51, on the claims register.

Battery records per 100 frozen May-2026 solar records in 2030: 21 lower / 44 reference / 74 upper (7.6 in May 2026). This is a common reference scale, not a household attachment-rate forecast.

Legacy NMC-chemistry fleet risk continues generating incident and remediation activity through at least 2026–2027.

Global storage additions rise a further 41% in 2026, to 158 GW / 459 GWh (from a measured 112 GW / 307 GWh in 2025).

Annual storage additions reach 308 GW by 2036, a trajectory implying roughly 2.9 TW / 10.5 TWh of cumulative global capacity.

Customer-sited (behind-the-meter) storage grows to approximately 25% of all global installations by 2030, from about 15% today.

More than 2 million households install a battery by 2030 for an estimated 40 GWh of additional capacity, under the program's $7.2 billion December 2025 expansion.

LFP holds approximately 95% of the stationary storage market from 2026.

NMC declines to roughly 1% of stationary storage share by 2030.

47% of rooftop-solar-suitable NEM dwellings have rooftop solar by 2035, rising to 56% in 2050, when rooftop and small-scale solar capacity would be 87 GW (from 20 GW at over 36% of suitable dwellings today). (p. 40)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

Utility-scale solar and wind capacity rises from about 23 GW today to 61 GW by 2030, 80 GW by 2035 and approximately 117 GW by 2050. (p. 78)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

64 GW / 640 GWh of dispatchable storage in the NEM by 2050. (p. 30)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

Small-scale batteries grow from 5 GW / 12 GWh in April 2026 to 12 GW / 33 GWh in 2030, and then 35 GW / 78 GWh in 2050. (p. 41)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

Most of the NEM's remaining coal fleet withdraws by 2038, with all to withdraw by 2049. (p. 6; section 5.2 phrases the same path as nearly two thirds retiring by 2035, all by 2050)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

Renewable energy achieves the 82% national target by 2030 and delivers 98% by 2050. (p. 6)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Integrated System Plan (final, June 2026)

Existing and committed peak capacity of 6,670 MW in 2028-29 against a 6,323 MW Peak Reserve Capacity Target: a 347 MW surplus. From 2029-30 the same measure turns negative.

Distributed rooftop PV capacity in the SWIS of about 3,100 MW in 2026-27, rising to about 6,000 MW by 2035-36.

Approximately 200 MW of annual peak-demand reduction from coordinated distributed batteries in 2028-29, being a 50 per cent availability factor applied to 640 MW projected to be coordinated through Synergy virtual power plants.

Australian data centre consumption of 12.0 TWh by FY30 under Step Change, being 6 per cent of the NEM's grid-supplied electricity, growing at an average 25.1 per cent a year from 3.9 TWh in FY25.

Annual data centre electricity consumption in the NEM rises from around 5 TWh, 2.8% of NEM operational consumption, in 2025-26 to around 34 TWh, 13% of forecast NEM operational consumption, by 2035-36. AEMO's forecasts considered the potential development of 225 known data centre projects, and assume mature data centres in aggregate utilise around 50% of their network connection capacity. (pp. 6, 80)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (NEM, published 25 August 2026)

For the purposes of the Retailer Reliability Obligation, no forecast reliability gaps are identified in the T-1 year (2027-28) or the T-3 year (2029-30) that would require AEMO to request the AER to consider making a reliability instrument. The reliability assessment used for RRO purposes included about 26 GW of anticipated projects; had they been excluded, T-3 reliability instruments would have been requested in Queensland and New South Wales for 2029-30, following the closure of Gladstone and Eraring power stations. Under the RRO framework, because a T-3 instrument will not be requested, there will be no opportunity to request a T-1 instrument for 2029-30 if anticipated developments do not proceed as expected. (pp. 4, 11)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (NEM, published 25 August 2026)

Committed and anticipated generation and storage capacity in the NEM has risen to 40 GW, more than half the total NEM capacity today. Anticipated projects account for approximately 26 GW of that pipeline; under AEMO's Committed and Anticipated Developments assessment, which applies recently observed commissioning delays, none is assumed to enter service before July 2028 and most are forecast to commission between 2028-29 and 2031-32. Connected capacity increased by 9.1 GW in 2025-26. (pp. 4, 53, 83)

Primary source, verified verbatim: AEMO: 2026 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (NEM, published 25 August 2026)

The STC factor is adjusted in line with falling battery costs so that the discount remains at around 30 per cent of the upfront cost of installing an eligible battery, at every scheduled step of the factor from 8.4 in January 2026 to 2.1 in December 2030.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Clean Energy Regulator: Solar batteries (STC factor schedule) · Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water: Cheaper Home Batteries Program

Held at the rate of the twelve months to June 2026, NEM rooftop PV capacity would reach 40.3 GW by 2029/30, 4.5 GW or 13 per cent above the 35.8 GW in AEMO's 2026 Integrated System Plan Step Change scenario. The rate is 3.4 GW installed nationally, of which the report estimates about 3 GW was in the NEM. The 30 June 2026 base of 28.3 GW is derived, not observed: the report rolls AEMO's January 2026 actual of 27.1 GW forward at that rate. The report states two qualifications that work in opposite directions: the ISP category includes distributed PV above 100 kW, and the extrapolation makes no allowance for retirements. It describes the result as an indication of current momentum rather than a forecast.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Clean Energy Council: Rooftop solar and storage report, January to June 2026 · Clean Energy Council: Rooftop solar and storage report, January to June 2026 (PDF)

Holding the installation rate of the twelve months to June 2026 constant, NEM consumer battery capacity would reach 59.2 GWh by 2029/30, 79 per cent above the 33 GWh in AEMO's 2026 Integrated System Plan Step Change scenario. The rate is 12.9 GWh nationally, of which the report estimates 11.8 GWh was in the NEM. The report's text gives an installed NEM base of approximately 10 GWh at 30 June 2026, but its Figure 10 series starts at 12.0 GWh in 2026 and adds 11.8 GWh a year, which is what produces 59.2 GWh; the report does not reconcile the two starting points, and it also gives the ISP's 2049/50 value as both 127 GWh and 78 GWh. It states the trajectory assumes no change in program settings, pricing or saturation, rests on twelve months of data from a market in its first year of subsidy, and is best read as a measure of how far current momentum sits above the planning assumption rather than as a forecast.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Clean Energy Council: Rooftop solar and storage report, January to June 2026 · Clean Energy Council: Rooftop solar and storage report, January to June 2026 (PDF)

Expanding the Small-scale Renewable Energy Scheme from 100 kW to 1 MW lowers the upfront cost of installing solar on commercial, industrial and agricultural buildings by around 20 per cent. The estimated discount is about $68,000 off a 250 kW system and about $136,000 off a 500 kW system.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Minister for Climate Change and Energy: Putting more roofs to work, 5 August 2026 · Clean Energy Regulator: Mid-scale solar

Small-scale technology certificate applications for mid-scale solar systems will not open until mid to late November 2026, allowing time to implement the required systems and processes, with assessment of applications beginning after that. Eligible systems installed on or after 1 October 2026 can apply once applications open.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Clean Energy Regulator: Mid-scale solar · Clean Energy Regulator: Mid-scale solar is now legislated, 17 September 2026

Removing the 100 kW ceiling unlocks rooftop solar for the missing middle, against a stated baseline of around 22 GW of Australian residential solar and around 5.6 GW installed by businesses, most of the business total in systems below 100 kW. The testable form is the shape of the installed size distribution either side of 100 kW: if the ceiling is what terminated it, the concentration below 100 kW thins after commencement.

Primary source, verified verbatim: Minister for Climate Change and Energy: Putting more roofs to work, 5 August 2026 · Federal Register of Legislation: Renewable Energy (Electricity) Amendment (Mid-scale Solar) Regulations 2026 (F2026L01232)