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South Africa opportunity dossier · Solar Analytica

ZAF / Market dossier

12.7% variable renewables, 0.8 percentage points of annual solar-share growth and a 2.6x prospective pipeline shape the current screening result.

Overall32

Storage40

Solar momentum36

Flexible load16

Grid pressure36

Confidence82

This is a relative evidence screen, not a forecast, valuation or investment recommendation. Scores identify questions worth deeper local diligence.

Score construction

Variable renewable share

Ember

12.7%

Higher variable output increases the value of shifting energy across time. Source

Prospective pipeline

Global Energy Monitor

2.6x

Prospective utility-scale solar divided by all operating solar capacity. Source

Fossil displacement runway

Ember

82.2%

A larger fossil share leaves more generation exposed to transition pressure. Source

Measure	Value	Window	Source
Solar generation share	8.0%	2025	Ember Electricity Data
Variable renewable share	12.7%	2025	Ember Electricity Data
Solar-share change	0.8 pp/year	2016-2025	Ember Electricity Data
Operating solar	12,382 MWac	February 2026	Global Energy Monitor
Scheduled 2026-30	2,503 MWac	February 2026	Global Energy Monitor
Prospective pipeline	31,889 MWac