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12.7% variable renewables, 0.8 percentage points of annual solar-share growth and a 2.6x prospective pipeline shape the current screening result.
This is a relative evidence screen, not a forecast, valuation or investment recommendation. Scores identify questions worth deeper local diligence.
Score construction
Variable renewable share
Ember
Higher variable output increases the value of shifting energy across time. Source
Prospective pipeline
Global Energy Monitor
Prospective utility-scale solar divided by all operating solar capacity. Source
Fossil displacement runway
Ember
A larger fossil share leaves more generation exposed to transition pressure. Source
| Measure | Value | Window | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar generation share | 8.0% | 2025 | Ember Electricity Data |
| Variable renewable share | 12.7% | 2025 | Ember Electricity Data |
| Solar-share change | 0.8 pp/year | 2016-2025 | Ember Electricity Data |
| Operating solar | 12,382 MWac | February 2026 | Global Energy Monitor |
| Scheduled 2026-30 | 2,503 MWac | February 2026 | Global Energy Monitor |
| Prospective pipeline | 31,889 MWac |
Detected market events
Solar Analytica event ledger
Weighted deterministic pipeline events retained for this market. Source
| February 2026 |
| Global Energy Monitor |