Projection lens

One kilowatt in Berlin, and the range around it.

Name: Solar Analytica Projection Lens: Berlin, Germany and Luxembourg bidding zone
Creator: Solar Analytica

What a kilowatt of bifacial TOPCon panels is projected to earn in Berlin, Germany and Luxembourg bidding zone, as a lower, reference and upper case. The Earth baseline is frozen at its 2026-07-09 edition, and every input behind the range is pinned by hash below, so each figure can be taken apart.

Reference value: 457 USD per kWp per year
Edition: 2026-09-23.1
Serving: Published snapshot
Market: EU-DE, DE_LU
Retail price: City 2025

All lens markets

Every figure, with the case that produced each bound.

The baseline is the unrated climatology yield before any real-world derate. The reference is an analytical planning case, not the most likely outcome, and the lower and upper bounds are named cases rather than percentiles. Money is in United States dollars.

Metric	Baseline	Lower	Reference	Upper
Specific yieldkWh per kWp per year	1,043	985	1,049	1,090
Energy value displacedUSD per kWp per year	455	325	457	489
Levelised cost of energyUSD per kWh	0.1270	0.0867	0.1029	0.1654
Simple paybackyears	3.4	2.6	2.6	3.9

Conditional scenario range, not a probability or confidence interval. Each bar spans a metric's lower and upper case as a percentage of that metric's own reference case, which is the zero line, so metrics in different units can share one axis. For levelised cost and payback, the lower end is the favourable one. The values behind every bar are in the table beside it. Source: Solar Analytica Projection Lens, edition 2026-09-23.1.

What each case assumes.

Retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; no wholesale window was supplied to this edition, so the retail history stands in.

Specific yield

Lower: P90 resource year (factor 0.9391) with no constraint exposure assumed
Reference: bifacial topcon, 25-year average after degradation
Upper: bifacial topcon, year one before degradation
Baseline: unrated topcon yield from the CERES climatology, before soiling, spectral, bifacial and degradation factors

Energy value displaced

Lower: P90 resource year (factor 0.9391) with no constraint exposure assumed; retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; no wholesale window was supplied to this edition, so the retail history stands in
Reference: reference yield at the city 2025 retail price (0.4358 USD per kWh)
Upper: bifacial topcon, year one before degradation; retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; no wholesale window was supplied to this edition, so the retail history stands in
Baseline: unrated yield at the pinned 2025 retail price, before any real-world derate

Levelised cost of energy

Lower: 3% discount, module degradation basis, capex net of 19% subsidy
Reference: 5% discount, module degradation basis, capex net of 19% subsidy (baseline is gross capex)
Upper: 8% discount, 2% per year degradation, capex net of subsidy
Baseline: gross capex before subsidy at the 5% discount over the reference yield

Simple payback

Lower: capex net of subsidy over the upper year-one value
Reference: capex net of subsidy over year-one value at the pinned price
Upper: capex net of subsidy over the lower value
Baseline: gross capex before subsidy over the unrated-yield value

How the yield changes as the panels age.

The reference yield is an average over the asset life. This is the path it averages: the first year is highest, and each later year gives up a little to degradation. Every point is derived from the edition, not observed and not forecast.

Specific yield of one kilowatt in Berlin in each horizon year, in kilowatt-hours per kilowatt-peak. Basis: module degradation basis: retention falls in a straight line from year one to the end of life, the same model the reference case averages; derived from the year-one yield and the life average, not observed and not forecast. The first year is the yield metric's upper case and the path averages to its reference case, so the figure and the table agree by construction. Source: Solar Analytica Projection Lens, edition 2026-09-23.1.

Year	Asset year	kWh per kWp
2027	1	1,090
2031	5	1,076
2036	10	1,059
2051	25	1,008

What this rests on.

Each input enters as a reference, a vintage and a content hash. An input this market does not have is recorded as an absence with its reason, never defaulted or borrowed from a neighbour.

Earth baseline: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-09location_yield_baseline:Berlin, Germanysha256 c21ea77d211d0f6d
Year-to-year resource variability: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-28market_resource_variability:Berlin, Germanysha256 750c9109d34516d8
Yield factors: soiling, spectrum, bifacial gain: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-09real_world_yield_stack:Berlin, Germany:topconsha256 1b421f6af453d5fc
Retail electricity price: Sourced, vintage 2025electricity_prices_annual:Berlin:2025:citysha256 2a666dff0833d350
Retail price history: Sourced, vintage 2016-2025electricity_prices_annual:Berlin:historysha256 3a1905e533debb09
Installed capital cost: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-10capex_baseline:Germanysha256 daa5fc1a613be5d8
Subsidy: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-10subsidy_baseline:Germanysha256 23b79b15537fd5d1
Module degradation: Sourced, vintage 2026-07-10degradation_baseline:Berlin, Germanysha256 6f8afe0b809a2c7e
Tariff edition: AbsentNo versioned retail tariff register for this market; the annual retail price row stands in.
Grid operating window: Not supplied to this editionNo grid window was supplied to this edition, so no price bound and no trigger could use one. The hash is of the empty window.sha256 3c67d1866439bad2
Export constraint regime: AbsentNo reviewed export-constraint regime for this zone; no exposure is assumed.
Assumption set: Declared assumption, vintage 2026-09-22.1assumption-set:projection-lens-reference-assumptionssha256 8f01dc1e29296fd4

What would reopen it.

A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically. These tests were declared with the edition, as a threshold and a window a machine can evaluate.

Trigger	Window	State
The average wholesale price over the window moved by more than a quarter against the pinned window	90 days	Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.
Negative-price intervals per day over the window are more than double the pinned window	90 days	Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.
Solar share of generation over the window moved by more than five points against the pinned window	90 days	Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.

Five layers, and where this market stands in each.

Observed record
What had happened by the evidence cut-off?
Earth baseline edition 1, verified 2026-07-09. No grid window was supplied to this edition.
Published outlooks
What did named sources say could happen?
No published outlook is joined to this lens market yet.
Scenario envelope
Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?
Each of the 4 metrics carries a baseline and a lower, reference and upper case, on TOPCon modules.
Review triggers
What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?
3 declared, 0 evaluable against a window today, 0 crossed.
Outcome and marking
What happened when the horizon became observable?
Nothing is marked yet. The first horizon year, 2027, has not ended.

What this range is, and what it is not.

The envelope is a conditional planning range under the declared assumptions. It is not a probability, a confidence interval, a forecast of returns, or a recommendation.
The reference case is an analytical planning case, not a most-likely outcome. Every bound names the case that produced it, and nothing between the bounds is weighted.
The value is what one kilowatt of panels displaces at the pinned retail price. It is not what any household, business or investor will receive, and it names no counterfactual beyond that price.
A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites a published edition, and a later edition supersedes an earlier one only by declaring which input moved.
This lens publishes evidence and a conditional range for one kilowatt. It does not recommend, rank markets by desirability, assign probabilities, or constitute investment advice.

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One kilowatt in Berlin, and the range around it.

Reference value

457 USD per kWp per year

Edition

2026-09-23.1

Serving

Published snapshot

Market

EU-DE, DE_LU

Retail price

City 2025

Metric

Baseline

Lower

Reference

Upper

Specific yieldkWh per kWp per year

1,043

985

1,049

1,090

Energy value displacedUSD per kWp per year

455

325

457

489

Levelised cost of energyUSD per kWh

0.1270

0.0867

0.1029

0.1654

Simple paybackyears

3.4

2.6

3.9

Year

Asset year

kWh per kWp

2027

1,090

2031

1,076

2036

1,059

2051

1,008

Trigger

Window

State

The average wholesale price over the window moved by more than a quarter against the pinned window

90 days

Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.

Negative-price intervals per day over the window are more than double the pinned window

90 days

Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.

Solar share of generation over the window moved by more than five points against the pinned window

90 days

Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window.

What this range is, and what it is not.

The envelope is a conditional planning range under the declared assumptions. It is not a probability, a confidence interval, a forecast of returns, or a recommendation.

The reference case is an analytical planning case, not a most-likely outcome. Every bound names the case that produced it, and nothing between the bounds is weighted.

The value is what one kilowatt of panels displaces at the pinned retail price. It is not what any household, business or investor will receive, and it names no counterfactual beyond that price.

A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites a published edition, and a later edition supersedes an earlier one only by declaring which input moved.

This lens publishes evidence and a conditional range for one kilowatt. It does not recommend, rank markets by desirability, assign probabilities, or constitute investment advice.

Every figure, with the case that produced each bound.

What each case assumes.

Specific yield

Energy value displaced

Levelised cost of energy

Simple payback

How the yield changes as the panels age.

What this rests on.

What would reopen it.

Five layers, and where this market stands in each.

Observed record

Published outlooks

Scenario envelope

Review triggers

Outcome and marking

What this range is, and what it is not.

Every figure, with the case that produced each bound.

What each case assumes.

Specific yield

Energy value displaced

Levelised cost of energy

Simple payback

How the yield changes as the panels age.

What this rests on.

What would reopen it.

Five layers, and where this market stands in each.

Observed record

Published outlooks

Scenario envelope

Review triggers

Outcome and marking

What this range is, and what it is not.