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Bifacial TOPCon panels in Berlin, Germany and Luxembourg bidding zone, from an Earth baseline frozen at its 2026-07-09 edition and the market's own retail prices. Every input behind the range is pinned by hash, so each figure can be taken apart.
Energy value displaced each year, reference case
457USD per kWp per year
Lower 325, reference 457, upper 489
The lower and upper bounds are named cases, not percentiles. The record below says what each case assumes.
How far each metric's bounds sit from its reference case, and the yield the reference averages over the asset life. Money is in United States dollars; every value is in the record below.
Every figure, case, input, trigger and boundary the edition rests on, one part at a time.
The baseline is the unrated climatology yield before any real-world derate. The reference is an analytical planning case, not the most likely outcome, and the lower and upper bounds are named cases rather than percentiles.
| Metric | Baseline | Lower | Reference | Upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yieldkWh per kWp per year | 1,043 | 985 | 1,049 | 1,090 |
| Energy value displacedUSD per kWp per year | 455 | 325 | 457 | 489 |
| Levelised cost of energyUSD per kWh | 0.1270 | 0.0867 | 0.1029 | 0.1654 |
| Simple paybackyears | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 3.9 |
| Year | Asset year | kWh per kWp |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1 | 1,090 |
| 2031 | 5 | 1,076 |
| 2036 | 10 | 1,059 |
| 2051 | 25 | 1,008 |
Retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; wholesale prices are watched only to decide when a review opens and never set a published figure.
Each input enters as a reference, a vintage and a content hash. An input this market does not have is recorded as an absence with its reason, never defaulted or borrowed from a neighbour.
sha256 daa5fc1a613be5d8sha256 23b79b15537fd5d1sha256 3c67d1866439bad2sha256 1b421f6af453d5fcsha256 6f8afe0b809a2c7esha256 2a666dff0833d350sha256 8f01dc1e29296fd4sha256 c21ea77d211d0f6dsha256 3a1905e533debb09sha256 750c9109d34516d8A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically. These tests were declared with the edition, as a threshold and a window a machine can evaluate.
The “pinned window” each label compares against is the trigger's own reference: the value the grid's operating record showed when the daily job first wrote the edition. It is not an input to the published range.
| Trigger | Window | State |
|---|---|---|
| The average wholesale price over the window moved by more than a quarter against the pinned window | 90 days | Not crossed when tested 2026-10-13 against the grid record from 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, 54 operating days: 114.21 EUR per MWh against a reference of 113.31 EUR per MWh, a change of 0.79% where more than 25% would cross. |
| Negative-price intervals per day over the window are more than double the pinned window | 90 days | Not crossed when tested 2026-10-13 against the grid record from 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, 54 operating days: 24.47 intervals a day against a reference of 25.83 intervals a day, a change of 5.27% where more than 100% would cross. |
| Solar share of generation over the window moved by more than five points against the pinned window | 90 days | Not crossed when tested 2026-10-13 against the grid record from 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, 54 operating days: 27.46% against a reference of 29.69%, a change of 2.23 percentage points where more than 5 percentage points would cross. |
What had happened by the evidence cut-off?
Earth baseline edition 1, verified 2026-07-09. No published range uses the grid's operating record; the live record is used only to test the review triggers.
What did named sources say could happen?
No published outlook is joined to this lens market yet.
Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?
Each of the 4 metrics carries a baseline and a lower, reference and upper case, on TOPCon modules.
What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?
3 declared. Last tested 2026-10-13: 0 crossed, 0 with an open review.
What happened when the horizon became observable?
Nothing is marked yet. The first horizon year, 2027, has not ended.
This lens publishes evidence and a conditional range for one kilowatt. It does not recommend, rank markets by desirability, assign probabilities, or constitute investment advice.