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What a kilowatt of bifacial TOPCon panels is projected to earn in Sydney, New South Wales (NEM), as a lower, reference and upper case. The Earth baseline is frozen at its 2026-07-09 edition, and every input behind the range is pinned by hash below, so each figure can be taken apart.
The baseline is the unrated climatology yield before any real-world derate. The reference is an analytical planning case, not the most likely outcome, and the lower and upper bounds are named cases rather than percentiles. Money is in United States dollars.
| Metric | Baseline | Lower | Reference | Upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yieldkWh per kWp per year | 1,504 | 1,349 | 1,407 | 1,492 |
| Energy value displacedUSD per kWp per year | 357 | 135 | 334 | 354 |
| Levelised cost of energyUSD per kWh | 0.0611 | 0.0412 | 0.0489 | 0.0769 |
| Simple paybackyears | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 5.9 |
Retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; no wholesale window was supplied to this edition, so the retail history stands in.
The reference yield is an average over the asset life. This is the path it averages: the first year is highest, and each later year gives up a little to degradation. Every point is derived from the edition, not observed and not forecast.
| Year | Asset year | kWh per kWp |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1 | 1,492 |
| 2031 | 5 | 1,464 |
| 2036 | 10 | 1,428 |
| 2051 | 25 | 1,322 |
Each input enters as a reference, a vintage and a content hash. An input this market does not have is recorded as an absence with its reason, never defaulted or borrowed from a neighbour.
sha256 fcdcf6bfb835ab53sha256 b921b9436aa85852sha256 375e4fab384e8cd0sha256 ea1bab0479f8cfbfsha256 4aafb172fd1f34b4sha256 9b45e445e4007919sha256 0020ba1f37c40e20sha256 b2de49fef469977bsha256 b3b6c37834ee05d0sha256 8f01dc1e29296fd4A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically. These tests were declared with the edition, as a threshold and a window a machine can evaluate.
| Trigger | Window | State |
|---|---|---|
| The average wholesale price over the window moved by more than a quarter against the pinned window | 90 days | Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window. |
| Negative-price intervals per day over the window are more than double the pinned window | 90 days | Declared. Nothing to test it against yet: this edition carries no grid window. |
What had happened by the evidence cut-off?
Earth baseline edition 1, verified 2026-07-09. No grid window was supplied to this edition.
What did named sources say could happen?
No published outlook is joined to this lens market yet.
Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?
Each of the 4 metrics carries a baseline and a lower, reference and upper case, on TOPCon modules.
What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?
2 declared, 0 evaluable against a window today, 0 crossed.
What happened when the horizon became observable?
Nothing is marked yet. The first horizon year, 2027, has not ended.