Loading Solar Analytica
Bifacial TOPCon panels in Sydney, New South Wales (NEM), from an Earth baseline frozen at its 2026-07-09 edition and the market's own retail prices. Every input behind the range is pinned by hash, so each figure can be taken apart.
Energy value displaced each year, reference case
334USD per kWp per year
Lower 135, reference 334, upper 354
The lower and upper bounds are named cases, not percentiles. The record below says what each case assumes.
How far each metric's bounds sit from its reference case, and the yield the reference averages over the asset life. Money is in United States dollars; every value is in the record below.
Every figure, case, input, trigger and boundary the edition rests on, one part at a time.
The baseline is the unrated climatology yield before any real-world derate. The reference is an analytical planning case, not the most likely outcome, and the lower and upper bounds are named cases rather than percentiles.
| Metric | Baseline | Lower | Reference | Upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specific yieldkWh per kWp per year | 1,504 | 1,349 | 1,407 | 1,492 |
| Energy value displacedUSD per kWp per year | 357 | 135 | 334 | 354 |
| Levelised cost of energyUSD per kWh | 0.0611 | 0.0412 | 0.0489 | 0.0769 |
| Simple paybackyears | 2.8 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 5.9 |
| Year | Asset year | kWh per kWp |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1 | 1,492 |
| 2031 | 5 | 1,464 |
| 2036 | 10 | 1,428 |
| 2051 | 25 | 1,322 |
Retail price at its 2016 to 2025 minimum and maximum; wholesale prices are watched only to decide when a review opens and never set a published figure.
Each input enters as a reference, a vintage and a content hash. An input this market does not have is recorded as an absence with its reason, never defaulted or borrowed from a neighbour.
sha256 9b45e445e4007919sha256 0020ba1f37c40e20sha256 b3b6c37834ee05d0sha256 375e4fab384e8cd0sha256 b2de49fef469977bsha256 ea1bab0479f8cfbfsha256 8f01dc1e29296fd4sha256 fcdcf6bfb835ab53sha256 4aafb172fd1f34b4sha256 b921b9436aa85852A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically. These tests were declared with the edition, as a threshold and a window a machine can evaluate.
The “pinned window” each label compares against is the trigger's own reference: the value the grid's operating record showed when the daily job first wrote the edition. It is not an input to the published range.
| Trigger | Window | State |
|---|---|---|
| The average wholesale price over the window moved by more than a quarter against the pinned window | 90 days | Not crossed when tested 2026-10-13 against the grid record from 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, 90 operating days: 85.71 AUD per MWh against a reference of 74.83 AUD per MWh, a change of 14.54% where more than 25% would cross. |
| Negative-price intervals per day over the window are more than double the pinned window | 90 days | Not crossed when tested 2026-10-13 against the grid record from 2026-07-15 to 2026-10-12, 90 operating days: 13.30 intervals a day against a reference of 13.67 intervals a day, a change of 2.71% where more than 100% would cross. |
What had happened by the evidence cut-off?
Earth baseline edition 1, verified 2026-07-09. No published range uses the grid's operating record; the live record is used only to test the review triggers.
What did named sources say could happen?
No published outlook is joined to this lens market yet.
Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?
Each of the 4 metrics carries a baseline and a lower, reference and upper case, on TOPCon modules.
What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?
2 declared. Last tested 2026-10-13: 0 crossed, 0 with an open review.
What happened when the horizon became observable?
Nothing is marked yet. The first horizon year, 2027, has not ended.
This lens publishes evidence and a conditional range for one kilowatt. It does not recommend, rank markets by desirability, assign probabilities, or constitute investment advice.