Forecast accountability

What the grid expected. What rooftops were estimated to deliver.

A fixed AEMO rooftop-solar forecast is kept exactly as issued, then compared with the later estimated actual record, without hindsight or a Solar Analytica forecast added on top.

Source: Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) ASEFS2
Coverage: Awaiting verified edition
Method: rooftop-forecast-record-v1

One day · one frozen forecast

See the miss without losing the range.

Select a region and operating date. The central forecast, its published uncertainty range and AEMO's estimated actual remain separate throughout the view.

Source status · source not integrated

The record is not yet publishable.

The source and method contract are published, but no verified AEMO source edition has been integrated. No substitute or zero-filled record is shown.

Method rooftop-forecast-record-v1 · edition source-not-integrated · generated 2 Aug 2026, 13:09 AEST

AEMO forecast files AEMO estimated actual files AEMO method

Reading rule

Freeze first. Compare later.

Forecast

Version 1 selects the latest AEMO VERSION_DATETIME no later than 12:00 AEST on the preceding operating day. This is a run-time cutoff, not a claim about when the source file became available. Later revisions do not overwrite it.

Estimated actual

AEMO's measurement- or satellite-derived estimate is labelled by type. It is not represented as directly metered rooftop generation.

Missing intervals

Incomplete source values stay blank, break the plotted line and are excluded from the three readings.

Forecast Accountability Grid Operations