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Observed history is not a forecast. A target is not a scenario. A scenario range is not a probability. Projective Layers keeps each class visible, freezes every published vintage and returns when the record can mark it.
Global mono-Si module technology · evidence cut 2026-06-25 · profile published 2026-07-31
The first profile re-presents an already published technology scenario. It introduces no new forecast: the source report's measured baseline and sourced 2030 positions are carried into the common framework, with their ledger claims unchanged.
First published profile
Global mono-Si module technology. Evidence cut off 2026-06-25; outcome assessment is due only after the horizon has matured. Evidence strength: moderate.
Decision read
Every published case keeps TOPCon above half of shipments in 2030; the uncertainty is how much share it gives back to later architectures.
Accountability
Not yet assessable. The original endpoints stay frozen until a like-for-like observed release can settle them.
Open this claim on the ledgerEach layer answers a different question. Missing evidence stays missing; a profile does not need to fill every layer before the record exists.
01 / Observed record
What had happened by the evidence cut-off?
Measured or officially estimated values retain their source vintage and revision status.
02 / Published outlooks
What did named sources say could happen?
Forecasts, projections, scenarios and targets keep the classification used by their publisher.
03 / Scenario envelope
Which conditional planning range does the evidence support?
Lower, reference and upper paths remain explicit; the range is not assigned a probability.
04 / Review triggers
What new evidence would make this view worth reopening?
Triggers are declared before publication and cause review rather than automatic replacement.
05 / Outcome and marking
What happened when the horizon became observable?
Like-for-like actuals are appended and the result is marked inside, above or below the original envelope.
A trigger creates a review obligation. It does not silently replace the published profile or prove that the scenario was wrong.
A new roadmap vintage
Reopen the layer when a named source materially revises a 2030 endpoint or its underlying classification.
On publication
A new measured shipment mix
Compare the new observed technology shares with the frozen 2025 baseline and the direction implied by the envelope.
Annual
Material committed capacity
Review when committed or operating capacity changes the factory-scale evidence behind a technology path.
Event-driven
Commercial shipment evidence
Keep laboratory records separate; review only when commercial product ships at material scale.
Event-driven
Conditional scenario range, not a probability or confidence interval.
The reference case is an analytical planning case, not a most-likely forecast.
A crossed trigger opens a review. It never rewrites the published layer automatically.
How the current range was built
The lower, reference and upper endpoints are named published roadmap positions selected in the source report. They are not averaged midpoints and do not carry assigned probabilities.
Current profile boundaries
Projective Layers explore conditional future pathways using published evidence and stated assumptions. They are not predictions, guarantees, investment advice or probability distributions unless explicitly labelled otherwise. The displayed range is not exhaustive, and observed source data may later be revised.