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The first monthly edition fixes the full monitored baseline before claiming a trend. It retains every covered forecast, permission, delivery, operating and revision record now visible.
The WEM outlook demonstrates the method clearly. A positive capacity balance is conditional on committed projects, while anticipated projects determine when the modelled gap opens. Coordinated batteries then introduce a second dependency: operational availability.
Approved-product lists add another kind of permission. Inclusion can unlock programme eligibility, but it cannot stand in for reliability, warranty support or project delivery. Those evidence layers stay separate.
This edition is a baseline, not a claim that July contained every material transition event. Coverage expands only when the source and comparison contract are durable.
Records by evidence stage
Operation
Five-minute WEM observations feed daily demand, rooftop PV, ramp and mix records.
Decision read: Use observed records to settle due forecasts, never to imply future delivery.
Permission
Removed equipment moves from the current equipment lists into archived lists.
Decision read: The transition between current and archived status is the market-access event.
Permission
Australian module, inverter and battery files plus California modules are versioned.
Decision read: Listing establishes eligibility, not product quality or site suitability.
Delivery
AEMO identifies 622 MW of anticipated capacity in 2028-29.
Decision read: Track assets into committed and operating status rather than treating the aggregate as delivered.
Forecast
AEMO records a 347 MW forecast capacity balance in 2028-29.
Decision read: The balance depends on committed assets arriving and is not an observed reliability margin.
Operation
AEMO forecasts about 200 MW of peak-demand reduction in 2028-29.
Decision read: The 2026-27 Hot Season is the first named operating checkpoint.
Delivery
The Australian programme record passed 400,000 supported systems.
Decision read: The count is programme delivery, not installed energy capacity or peak availability.
Forecast
The Step Change scenario rises to 87 GW in 2050.
Decision read: Adoption, network settings and policy remain dependencies, not delivered capacity.
Forecast
The Step Change scenario carries small batteries to 33 GWh in 2030.
Decision read: Power and energy capacity must remain paired; counts cannot settle the forecast.
Revision
Successive CPIA roadmap editions reduced the 2030 HJT share by 12.5 percentage points.
Decision read: The newer edition does not erase the earlier planning assumption.
Revision
ITRPV records n-type wafer share near 82%, above an earlier 2030 expectation.
Decision read: Roadmap endpoints must stay beside later observations so direction and timing can be marked.
Delivery
GEM reports 2,093 GWac operating and 2,247 GWac prospective in February 2026.
Decision read: Prospective capacity is not a forecast and does not imply delivery.
The next release will prioritise source-edition changes, project-status movement, product-list churn and newly due operating checkpoints. A repeated record remains visible in the living ledger but does not become a new monthly event without evidence of change.